Spatiotemporal distribution and ecological factors of brucellosis among children from 2016 to 2020 in Inner Mongolia, China Short Title： Epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in children

Abstract

Objective: In recent years, the increasing incidence of brucellosis in children has become more serious in recent years, however, relatively few studies have been conducted to characterize the spatialtemporal distribution of brucellosis in children. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and ecological influencing factors of brucellosis incidence among children in Inner Mongolia. Methods: Using reported incidence data for brucellosis in children aged 0-14 years in Inner Mongolia from 2016 to 2020, the spatiotemporal distribution of childhood brucellosis through Bayesian model and a geographically-weighted regression model was used to analyze ecological factors affecting brucellosis incidence in children. Result: Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis indicated that the highest brucellosis risk and increased disease incidence were observed in Hinggan, Inner Mongolia,in children aged 0-14 years. Alxa had the lowest risk but the incidence rate increased rapidly. The incidence of childhood brucellosis was positively associated with the number of sheep at the year-end (β: 2.590940~ 2.592615, P<0.01), average temperature (β: 2.897817~ 2.902964, P<0.05), and precipitation level (β: 3.326089~ 3.326833, P<0.01). Conclusion: Brucellosis in children needs urgent attention. From 2016 to 2020, the overall incidence of brucellosis in children in Inner Mongolia showed an upward trend, with cases exhibiting spatial aggregation. While we are concerned about areas at high risk of brucellosis in children, we should also be concerned about areas where the incidence is rising fast. The number of sheep at the end of the year, average temperature, and precipitation were ecological factors that affected the incidence of childhood brucellosis.