Spatiotemporal distribution prediction of the relict and endangered plant Tetraena mongolica in inner Mongolia, China under climate change

Abstract

Climate change significantly affects the distribution of plant species, particularly that of relict plants. Tetraena mongolica Maxim. is a first-class endangered relict plant in China, primarily found in Inner Mongolia. This study explored the impact of multiple factors on its potential distribution under climate change. Considering a comprehensive set of 42 potential influencing variables, including climate, soil, net primary productivity (NPP), human activities, and topography, 29 variables were selected. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to construct separate climate and soil niche models, and an “overlay function” was employed to construct a dual-suitability model. By establishing five different scenarios, we analyzed the effects of climate, human activities, and NPP on T. mongolica distribution. The results showed that climate is the most significant factor, soil constraints limit its distribution, and human activities reduce its suitable habitats. Although the direct influence of NPP is limited, it may indirectly affect T. mongolica distribution by improving habitat conditions. Future climate change is expected to sharply reduce suitable habitat areas, with the center of distribution migrating eastward. The study’s findings imply that climate change, human activities, and soil conditions significantly impact the distribution and survival of the endangered plant T. mongolica , necessitating comprehensive conservation measures to mitigate habitat loss and ensure its preservation. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-024-79088-6.