Spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature and precipitation with reference to COVID-19 pandemic lockdown: perspective from Indian subcontinent

Abstract

This study exclusively focuses on spatial and temporal change of temperature and precipitation before and after COVID-19 lockdown and also examines the extent of their variation and the spatial relationship between them. Our main objective is to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of two climatic variables in Indian subcontinent for the period of 2015-2020. Monthly precipitation and temperature data are collected from NOAA and NASA for January to May month across the four zones (northeast, northwest, central, and peninsular zone) of India. To conduct a zone-wise statistical analysis, we have adopted statistical process control (SPC) methods like exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts, individual charts (I-Chart) to detect the shift in temperature and precipitation over the study period and Pearson correlation coefficient applied to measure the spatial association between the two variables. The findings revealed that temperature parameter has experienced a lot of positive and negative trends in the span of 6 years and detected a weak to moderate negative correlation in many parts of the country in April 2020 after 2016. This study also identified a weak negative correlation mainly in NE zone in 2020 after 2017. This research provides vital scientific contribution to the effects of monthly temperature and precipitation before and after COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

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“…The control limits and central line of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart are calculated using the formula below, where µ0 is the centerline [ 25 ].…”

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“…A λ value of 0.05 was used in the current application according to SPC literature recommending values between 0.05 and 0.25 ( 55 ). The control limits and central line of the EWMA chart are given by , where μ 0 is the centreline ( 56 ). The EWMA chart was generated in this way to identify possible outlier signals, defined here as any weekly observation falling outside the control limits of the EWMA control chart.…”