Spatiotemporal Evolution and Obstacle Factor Analysis of Coupling Coordination Between Economic Resilience and Green, Low-Carbon Development in China

Abstract

To achieve economic resilience and green, low-carbon development are two goals of China’s high-quality economic development. This paper uses the entropy weight method and coupling coordination degree model to estimate the coupling coordination level of economic resilience and green, low-carbon development. Kernel density estimation, Moran index, Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chain, and obstacle degree model are used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and obstacle factors. The results are as follows. (1) The coupling coordination degree between China’s economic resilience and green, low-carbon development has increased overall. However, the eastern region has the highest, and the central region has the fastest growth. (2) The coupling coordination degree shows positive spatial autocorrelation, with most provinces exhibiting high–high or low–low aggregation characteristics. (3) The contribution of imbalance mainly comes from inter-regional differences, but the contribution of intra-regional differences to imbalance is increasing. (4) The spatio-temporal evolution pattern is generally better, and the probability of the coupling coordination degree maintaining the initial state is the largest. The neighborhood’s state affects the transition probability but does not affect that of high-level provinces. (5) Innovation capacity is the main obstacle to improving economic resilience, and per capita water resources are the main obstacle to green and low-carbon development. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions for creating a good innovation environment, increasing R&D investment, promoting green technology progress, optimizing regional cooperation and resource allocation, and promoting industrial green transformation.