Spatiotemporal Evolution of County-Level Land Use Structure in the Context of Urban Shrinkage: Evidence from Northeast China

Abstract

Shrinking cities are a class of cities that show different trajectories in the urbanization process. Although many studies have examined shrinking cities from multi-dimensional perspectives, the spatiotemporal evolution of land use structure is still poorly understood. This study constructed an analysis framework for spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use structure over two 10-year periods based on 334 county-level administrative units in the context of northeast China, a region undergoing substantial population loss and urban shrinkage. This study analyses quantitatively measured population loss and land use conversion and investigated the rationality of the expansion mode of newly added construction land in research units. The results demonstrated that, first, the total population in northeast China continued to decline, but the total construction area continued to grow, and the various types of construction land in most shrinking units did not decline with the loss of population. Second, 67.09% of new construction land came from cropland, and compared with 2000–2010, the growth of new construction land in 2010–2020 slowed down. Third, during the study period, more than half of the expansion area for newly added construction land came from sprawling expansion, and areas in a state of shrinking were no exception.

Identification of shrinking cities in Northeast China and spatiotemporal evolution of construction land expansion

“…的闲置与废弃 [36] ； 而中国东北地区收缩城市则多呈 现出人口流失与建设用地扩张并存的悖论现象 [10] 。 [37] ； 房价的大幅波动会加剧开 发商与住户之间的矛盾， 甚至于导致资本不太雄厚 的开发商破产， 在城市内形成大量烂尾楼 [36] 。而且 因其他用地呈现出的供不应求， 也将导致与居住用 地相适应的基础与公共服务设施严重滞后， 既限制 了交通、 电力、 信息、 污水与垃圾处理等基础设施的 建设， 又制约了商业、 教育、 医疗、 餐饮、 娱乐等服务 业的发展。上述过程相互交织渗透， 造成了收缩城 市的 "恶性循环" 。 5.2 关于收缩城市新增建设用地扩张模式的探讨 城市建设用地扩张模式研究是区域研究的热 点问题， 国内外学者基于经济学、 社会学和地理学 等不同理论视角对城市建设用地扩张模式的类型 划分进行了深入研究， 并指导了实践。如许家伟等 [38] 基于 TM 影像将建设用地扩张模式分为紧凑型圈层 模式、 低密度蔓延模式和轴向带状扩展模式； 戴芹 等 [39] 基于组织神经网络分类(SOMF)方法， 将北京 市建设用地的扩张模式划分为填充式、 扩张式、 独 立式、 线状式和簇状式。本文根据尹慧慧等 [29] 力 [40] ， 形成合理的建设用地扩张秩序， 即以填充式扩 张为主、 蔓延式扩张为辅、 飞地式扩张次之， 可提高 新增建设用地投入与产出， 提升城市 "宜居性" 。结 合已有研究与本文结果发现， 以飞地式扩张为主的 收缩城市可通过完善开发区基础与公共服务设施， 增强人流、 物流、 资金流等的吸引力 [41]…”

Impacts of urban shrinkage on the built environment and its environmental sustainability: an analytical review

“…The economic development of some shrinking cities with low resource efficiency and high carbon emission intensity impacts the quality of ecological sustainability. Some measures to stimulate socioeconomic growth through urban land expansion ignore the efficiency of resource allocation (Li et al 2022), which is not conducive to creating a liveable built environment. Only focusing on strengthening the socioeconomic vitality of shrinking cities may deteriorate ecological sustainability (Sun and Zhou 2023).…”

A Simulation of the Spatial Expansion Process of Shrinking Cities Based on the Concept of Smart Shrinkage: A Case Study of the City of Baishan

“…China is in a period of rapid urbanization; therefore, considering expansion and growth from the perspective of logical deduction seems to be the conventional progression pathway for the development of cities [5]. Nevertheless, China has experienced different levels of urban shrinkage in both quickly developing and relatively less developed regions [6]. Moreover, there has been a consistent increase in Land 2024, 13, 239 2 of 21 the quantity of shrinking cities in China in recent years.…”

“…However, in cities that are already experiencing population shrinkage, such planning concepts are difficult to justify in any fundamental logical sense. The contradiction between the decreasing urban population and increasing construction land has also become a pressing issue for China's shrinking cities (Figure 1) [6].…”