Spatiotemporal Hybrid Air Pollution Early Warning System of Urban Agglomeration Based on Adaptive Feature Extraction and Hesitant Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Abstract

Long-term exposure to air pollution will pose a serious threat to human health. Accurate prediction can help people reduce exposure risks and promote environmental pollution control. However, most previous studies have ignored the spatial spillover of air pollution, i.e., that the current region’s air quality is also correlated with that of geographically adjacent areas. Therefore, this paper proposes an innovative spatiotemporal hybrid early warning system based on adaptive feature extraction and improved fuzzy cognition maps. Firstly, a spatial spillover analysis model based on the Moran index and local gravitational clustering was proposed to capture the diffusion and concentration characteristics of air pollution between regions. Then, an adaptive feature extraction model based on an optimized Hampel filter was put forward to process and correct the outliers in the original series. Finally, a hesitant fuzzy information optimized fuzzy cognitive maps model was proposed to forecast the air quality of urban agglomeration. The experimental results show that the air quality forecasting accuracy of urban agglomerations can be significantly improved when the geographical conditions and other interactions among cities are comprehensively considered, and the proposed model outperformed other benchmarks and can be used as a powerful analytical tool during urban agglomeration air quality management.

Complex Real-Time Monitoring and Decision-Making Assistance System Based on Hybrid Forecasting Module and Social Network Analysis

“…In urban agglomerations, changes in air quality often depend not only on the city's own pollution sources and meteorological conditions but are also influenced by the surrounding cities. For example, if other cities surrounding a city have significant industrial emissions or meteorological conditions that are not conducive to the dispersion of pollutants, the air quality of that city may be negatively affected [41]. Such interactions can be revealed by the analysis of spatiotemporal correlation.…”