Spatiotemporal hydroclimatic characteristics of arid and semi-arid river basin under climate change: a case study of Iraq

Saeed, Fouad H.; Al-Khafaji, Mahmoud Saleh; Al-Faraj, Furat

doi:10.1007/s12517-022-10548-x

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…However, the projections show a reduction of around 5% under RCP 2.6. The results of this study are consistent with those of [48,49], indicating an average decline in the water resources of the Tigris River in the range of 8-50% compared with observations recorded in the last three Referring to S3, Table 6 shows the percentage of irrigated areas that should be dimensioned to maintain the minimum requirement of flow in the streams for river environmental purposes and to eliminate water stress in Diyala and Basrah. In Diyala (Basrah), the irrigated area should be diminished by lower and upper limits of 8 and 68% (47% under RCP 8.5 and P3) under RCP 2.6, P1 and RCP 8.5, P3, respectively, compared with the irrigated area in the RP.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

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Sustainable Adaptation Plan in Response to Climate Change and Population Growth in the Iraqi Part of Tigris River Basin

Saeed,

Al-Khafaji,

Al-Faraj

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Climate change and population growth play crucial roles in the planning of future water resources management strategies. In this paper, a balancing between projected water resources and water demands in the Iraqi Part of the Tigris River Basin (TRB) was evaluated till the year 2080 based on RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 and population growth. This paper examined a sustainable adaptation plan of water resources in the TRB considering three scenarios; (S1) as no change in the current strategy, (S2) as improved irrigation efficiency and (S3) as improved irrigation and municipal water use efficiency. The results showed a decline in streamflow will occur in the range from 5 to 18.4% under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The minimum increase in water demand is expected for RCP 2.6 (maximum increase for RCP 8.5) by 51.8 (208.2), 9.9 (42) and 1.2 (7)% for the municipal–industrial, irrigation and environmental water demands, respectively, compared with the RP. The main finding indicated that S1 is the worst scenario, with water stress in four provinces, especially on the warmest RCP. Whereas, under S2 and S3 conditions, water stress can be eliminated. Increasing ambition towards adaptation becomes obligatory for developing sustainable water sources, supporting water food securities and increasing resilience towards climate change.

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