Spatiotemporal monsoon characteristics and maize yields in West Africa

Abstract

To assess the vulnerability of rainfed agriculture in West Africa (WA) to climate change, a detailed understanding of the relationship between food crop yields and seasonal rainfall characteristics is required. The highly seasonal rainfall in the region is expected to change characteristics such as seasonal timing, duration, intensity, and intermittency. The food crop yield response to changes in these characteristics needs greater understanding. We follow a data-driven approach based on historical yield and climate data. Such an approach complements model-based approaches. Previous data-driven studies use spatially and temporally averaged precipitation measures, which do not describe the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of the West African Monsoon (WAM), the primary source of water for agriculture in the region. This has led previous studies to find small or insignificant dependence of crop yields on precipitation amount. Here, we develop metrics that characterize important temporal features and variability in growing season precipitation, including total precipitation, onset and duration of the WAM, and number of non-precipitating days. For each temporal precipitation metric, we apply several unique spatial aggregation functions that allow us to assess how different patterns of high-resolution spatial variability are related to country-level maize yields. We develop correlation analyses between spatiotemporal precipitation metrics and detrended country-level maize yields based on findings that non-climatic factors, such as agricultural policy reform and increased investment, have driven the region’s long-term increase in maize yields. Results show that that the variability in the number of days without rain during the monsoon season and the lower bounds to the spatial rain pattern and end to the monsoon season are most strongly associated with maize yields. Our findings highlight the importance of considering spatial and temporal variability in precipitation when evaluating impacts on crop yields, providing a possible explanation for weak connections found in previous studies.

Climate Change and Food Supply Chain Economics: A Comprehensive Analysis of Impacts, Adaptations, and Sustainability

“…Finally, climate change poses threats to food security and nutritional adequacy, particularly in developing countries, where agriculture is more vulnerable to extreme weather events (Marmai et al, 2022). The vulnerability of rainfed agriculture to climate change in West Africa has been highlighted, emphasizing the need for a detailed understanding of the relationship between food crop yields and seasonal rainfall characteristics (Shiu et al, 2021;Abrahams et al, 2023). Additionally, the increasing climate variability has been shown to have potentially detrimental impacts on global food production, posing a threat to food security and nutritional adequacy (Heino et al, 2022).…”