Spatiotemporal panorama of deaths from external causes in Brazil: an ecological and population-based study of a 23-year historical series (Preprint)

Abstract

BACKGROUND Mortality from external causes is a significant public health concern globally, impacting both lives and economies. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of such mortality in Brazil over 23 years, from 2000 to 2022, using data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM). We employed Joinpoint regression for temporal trends, Moran's I for spatial analysis, and Poisson scanning statistics for spatiotemporal patterns. The study recorded 3,240,023 deaths, with the highest rates among men and young adults (20-39 years). Major causes included assaults (36.61%), transport accidents (26.55%), falls (7.83%), and self-harm (7.43%). Despite an overall decreasing trend in mortality, increases were observed in the North and Northeast regions and among the elderly. High-risk areas were primarily in the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions. Although there was a reduction in mortality from external causes, it was not uniform across all regions. Men and young adults remain the most affected, with the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions exhibiting the highest mortality risks. OBJECTIVE Mortality from external causes is a significant public health concern globally, impacting both lives and economies. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of such mortality in Brazil over 23 years, from 2000 to 2022, using data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM). METHODS We employed Joinpoint regression for temporal trends, Moran's I for spatial analysis, and Poisson scanning statistics for spatiotemporal patterns. RESULTS The study recorded 3,240,023 deaths, with the highest rates among men and young adults (20-39 years). Major causes included assaults (36.61%), transport accidents (26.55%), falls (7.83%), and self-harm (7.43%). Despite an overall decreasing trend in mortality, increases were observed in the North and Northeast regions and among the elderly. High-risk areas were primarily in the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions. CONCLUSIONS Although there was a reduction in mortality from external causes, it was not uniform across all regions. Men and young adults remain the most affected, with the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions exhibiting the highest mortality risks. CLINICALTRIAL Although there was a reduction in mortality from external causes, it was not uniform across all regions. Men and young adults remain the most affected, with the North, Northeast, and Central-West regions exhibiting the highest mortality risks.