Spatiotemporal pattern and risk factors of the reported novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) cases in China

Qiu, Juan; Li, Rendong; Xu, Xingjian; Hong, Xuebao; Xia, Xin; Yu, Chuanhua

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.03.030

Cited by 23 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…A small set of previous studies have used SDMs to identify the set of high risk areas to target for control for both H5N1 [17-23] and H7N9 [24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. However, SDMs alone can only provide estimates of the probability of virus presence.…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[37] took accuracy of coordinate data into account. Furthermore, most H7N9 studies used only locations of positive human cases to define whether a location was infected [24][25][26][27]29,30]. Gilbert et al [28] was the only H7N9 study to additionally consider locations of positive virus detections in bird or bird-environments as positive virus locations.…”

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In recent years, SDMs have been increasingly used in the public health context [12,13], particularly with respect to infectious diseases that involve vector species such as mosquito-borne diseases [14,15] and tick-borne diseases [16]; these diseases are markedly influenced by subtle changes in climatic conditions which determine vector distribution. In this study we created SDMs using Maxent for both H5N1 and H7N9.A small set of previous studies have used SDMs to identify the set of high risk areas to target for control for both H5N1 [17-23] and H7N9 [24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. However, SDMs alone can only provide estimates of the probability of virus presence.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only Martin et al[37] took accuracy of coordinate data into account. Furthermore, most H7N9 studies used only locations of positive human cases to define whether a location was infected [24][25][26][27]29,30]. Gilbert et al [28] was the only H7N9 study to additionally consider locations of positive virus detections in bird or bird-environments as positive virus locations.In summary, this study contributes to the literature by (i) collating a data set using case coordinates with a high level of accuracy that includes positive virus detections from humans, animals and animal environments; (ii) generating high-resolution (approximately 1km 2 cells) SDMs for both H5N1 and H7N9, and (iii) performing high resolution risk analyses for both virus subtypes.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis

et al. 2017

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BackgroundZoonotic avian influenza poses a major risk to China, and other parts of the world. H5N1 has remained endemic in China and globally for nearly two decades, and in 2013, a novel zoonotic influenza A subtype H7N9 emerged in China. This study aimed to improve upon our current understanding of the spreading mechanisms of H7N9 and H5N1 by generating spatial risk profiles for each of the two virus subtypes across mainland China.Methods and findingsIn this study, we (i) developed a refined data set of H5N1 and H7N9 locations with consideration of animal/animal environment case data, as well as spatial accuracy and precision; (ii) used this data set along with environmental variables to build species distribution models (SDMs) for each virus subtype in high resolution spatial units of 1km2 cells using Maxent; (iii) developed a risk modelling framework which integrated the results from the SDMs with human and chicken population variables, which was done to quantify the risk of zoonotic transmission; and (iv) identified areas at high risk of H5N1 and H7N9 transmission. We produced high performing SDMs (6 of 8 models with AUC > 0.9) for both H5N1 and H7N9. In all our SDMs, H7N9 consistently showed higher AUC results compared to H5N1, suggesting H7N9 suitability could be better explained by environmental variables. For both subtypes, high risk areas were primarily located in south-eastern China, with H5N1 distributions found to be more diffuse and extending more inland compared to H7N9.ConclusionsWe provide projections of our risk models to public health policy makers so that specific high risk areas can be targeted for control measures. We recommend comparing H5N1 and H7N9 prevalence rates and survivability in the natural environment to better understand the role of animal and environmental transmission in human infections.

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Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Open Accessmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis

et al. 2017

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“…All data were converted into 1 Â 1 square kilometer lattice. This spatial resolution was chosen because it is a broadly accepted spatial unit for ecological studies (Ge et al, 2012;Qiu et al, 2014). Moreover, research have shown that an individual's activity space varies between 800 and 1000 meters and that a finer spatial resolution may cause structural clutter that affects decision-making (Lai et al, 2015).…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional transport and its association with tuberculosis in the Shandong province of China, 2009–2011

Lai

Zhang

et al. 2015

Journal of Transport Geography

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Ambient Temperature and Major Infectious Diseases in China

Sun

Liu

Fan

et al. 2019

Ambient Temperature and Health in China

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Infectious diseases are a group of diseases which have complex transmission ways and various influencing factors. Clarifying the correlation between ambient temperature and major infectious diseases in China is a crucial step toward the successful control of infectious diseases including vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, respiratory infectious diseases, etc. and the implementations of climate change adaption strategy and measures in China. However, no study has systematically reviewed the available evidences on the impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of major infectious diseases, and such information is essential for policymakers and stakeholders to take specific actions to control infectious diseases and pro-the current evidence for the effect of ambient temperature on major infectious diseases in China. The findings could provide explicit information for the scientific prevention and control of infectious diseases in China.

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Spatiotemporal pattern and risk factors of the reported novel avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) cases in China

Cited by 23 publications

References 23 publications

Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis

Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 in China: A spatial risk analysis

Regional transport and its association with tuberculosis in the Shandong province of China, 2009–2011

Ambient Temperature and Major Infectious Diseases in China

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