Spatiotemporal Patterns of Anthrax, Vietnam, 1990–2015

Walker, Morgan A.; Tan, Luong Minh; Dang, Le Hai; Khang, Pham Van; Ha, Hoang Thi Thu; Hung, Tran Thi Mai; Dung, Ho Hoang; Anh, Đặng Đức; Dương, Trần Như; Hadfield, Ted L.; Thái, Phạm Quang; Blackburn, Jason K.

doi:10.3201/eid2811.212584

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The population for 2021 and 2022 was computed using the zonal‐estimated population for 2020 and annual population growth rates between 2019 and 2020 of each corresponding commune (a province average of 1% per year). The zonal statistic routine was performed in QGIS with the method described elsewhere (Barro et al., 2015) and previously verified its accuracy in Vietnam at the national and provincial level (Luong et al., 2022; Walker et al., 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The zonal statistic routine was performed in QGIS with the method described elsewhere (Barro et al, 2015) and previously verified its accuracy in Vietnam at the national and provincial level (Luong et al, 2022;Walker et al, 2022).…”

Section: Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Vietnam, a recent estimate of human anthrax using historical data (1990–2015) identified a peak annual incidence of up 2.3 cases per 10,000 people (Walker et al., 2022). The study indicated six provinces in the Northern Midlands and Mountainous region of Vietnam reported most of the recent human anthrax (Dien Bien, Ha Giang, Lai Chau, Son La, Lao Cai, and Cao Bang).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial epidemiology of human anthrax in Son La province, Vietnam, 2003–2022

Luong,

Nguyen,

et al. 2024

Zoonoses and Public Health

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AimsAnthrax is reported with frequency but poorly understood in Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam. In Vietnam, anthrax surveillance is national. However, case detection, prevention, and control are implemented locally at the provincial level. Here, we describe the epidemiological characteristics, identify spatial clusters of human anthrax, and compare the variation in livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease incidence in humans and livestock using historical data in Son La province, Vietnam (2003–2020).Methods and ResultsMost human cases occurred between April and September. Most of the patients were male, aged 15–54 years old. The human cases were mainly reported by public district hospitals. There was a delay between disease onset and hospitalization of ~5 days. We identified spatial clusters of high–high incidence communes in the northern communes of the province using the local Moran's I statistic. The vaccine coverage sharply decreased across the study period. The province reported sporadic human anthrax outbreaks, while animal cases were only reported in 2005 and 2022.ConclusionsThese results suggest underreporting for human and livestock anthrax in the province. Intersectoral information sharing is needed to aid livestock vaccination planning, which currently relies on reported livestock cases. The spatial clusters identify areas for targeted surveillance and livestock vaccination, while the seasonal case data suggest prioritizing vaccination campaigns for February or early March ahead of the April peak. A regional approach for studying the role of livestock trading between Son La and neighbouring provinces in anthrax occurrence is recommended.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial epidemiology of human anthrax in Son La province, Vietnam, 2003–2022

Luong,

Nguyen,

et al. 2024

Zoonoses and Public Health

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“…Bayesian spatiotemporal models for anthrax were applied in Vietnam [149,150] and Kenya [151]. In Kenya, a Bayesian approach was employed to analyse a long-term dataset of livestock anthrax cases from 2006 to 2020.…”

Section: Anthraxmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Bayesian Spatiotemporal Models in Spatial Epidemiology

Wang,

Chen,

Xue

2024

IJGI

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Spatial epidemiology investigates the patterns and determinants of health outcomes over both space and time. Within this field, Bayesian spatiotemporal models have gained popularity due to their capacity to incorporate spatial and temporal dependencies, uncertainties, and intricate interactions. However, the complexity of modelling and computations associated with Bayesian spatiotemporal models vary across different diseases. Presently, there is a limited comprehensive overview of Bayesian spatiotemporal models and their applications in epidemiology. This article aims to address this gap through a thorough review. The review commences by delving into the historical development of Bayesian spatiotemporal models concerning disease mapping, prediction, and regression analysis. Subsequently, the article compares these models in terms of spatiotemporal data distribution, general spatiotemporal data models, environmental covariates, parameter estimation methods, and model fitting standards. Following this, essential preparatory processes are outlined, encompassing data acquisition, data preprocessing, and available statistical software. The article further categorizes and summarizes the application of Bayesian spatiotemporal models in spatial epidemiology. Lastly, a critical examination of the advantages and disadvantages of these models, along with considerations for their application, is provided. This comprehensive review aims to enhance comprehension of the dynamic spatiotemporal distribution and prediction of epidemics. By facilitating effective disease scrutiny, especially in the context of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the review holds significant academic merit and practical value. It also aims to contribute to the development of improved ecological and epidemiological prevention and control strategies.

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“…Lao Cai Province is one of the six provinces in northern Vietnam where anthrax has persisted in the last two decades (Walker et al, 2022). It is a remote and poor province where 73.6% population live in rural mountainous areas (Lao Cai Statistics Office 2021, 2022) and a large proportion of rural households live below the poverty line (~35.1% in 2016) (Lao Cai Statistics Office 2016.…”

Section: Spatial Clusters Of Human and Livestock Anthrax Define High-...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax define high-risk areas requiring intervention in Lao Cai Province, Vietnam 1991-2022

Luong,

Tran,

Pham

et al. 2024

Geospat Health

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Anthrax, a widespread zoonosis in low and middle-income countries with low disease awareness and insufficient livestock vaccination coverage, has been known in Lao Cai Province in northern Vietnam for years before its apparent absence in 2009, which requires investigation as this infection is frequently reported from neighbouring provinces and countries. We aimed to describe the seasonal patterns of anthrax (1991-2008), compare livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease occurrence (1991- 2022), and delineate the high-risk areas to inform local disease surveillance in the province. We illustrated the seasonal pattern of anthrax and provided a comparison between livestock vaccine coverage and disease occurrence by purely spatial SaTScan (Poisson model, 25% population at risk) to detect spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax using population derived from zonal statistics routines. The number of cases, crude cumulative incidence, and spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax were mapped in QGIS. Results indicate peak anthrax incidence from May to October. Buffalo, domestic cattle, and horses accounted for 75% of total animal cases. Horse anthrax was more common in Lao Cai than in its neighbours and often occurred in years with human mortality. Vaccination covered less than 30% of the livestock population. We found an apparent pattern where anthrax was controlled from 1998-2003 with higher vaccine coverage (>20%) and identified spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax in Muong Khuong, Bao Thang, and Bac Ha districts of Lao Cai. The local public health and veterinary agencies are recommended to revisit the high-risk areas and communicate with neighbouring provinces for a regional approach to anthrax surveillance and control.

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Spatiotemporal Patterns of Anthrax, Vietnam, 1990–2015

Cited by 5 publications

References 38 publications

Spatial epidemiology of human anthrax in Son La province, Vietnam, 2003–2022

Spatial epidemiology of human anthrax in Son La province, Vietnam, 2003–2022

A Review of Bayesian Spatiotemporal Models in Spatial Epidemiology

Spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax define high-risk areas requiring intervention in Lao Cai Province, Vietnam 1991-2022

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