Spatiotemporal trends and variability of rainfall across agro-ecologies in East Guji Zone, Southeast Ethiopia

Abstract

Distribution and trends of rainfall reveal spatial and temporal variability that have a paramount effect on the life and livelihood of small-holder farmers. This study aimed to analyze spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall distribution across the three Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of East Guji. Time series gridded daily rainfall data (1990–2020) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institution. Different descriptive statistics, trend tests: Man Kendal and Sen’s slope estimator, Inverse Distance Weighted Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was used in the study. The finding demonstrated that altitude and rainfall decrease as one advances from the western (highland) to the eastern (lowland) direction in the study area where the highest rainfall was recorded in Solemo (highland) and the least in Negele (lowland).The study showed that as altitude increases annual rainfall also increases and rainfall variability decreases. Similarly the mean length of the growing season declines as one advance from the highlands to the lowlands. The PCI of the lowlands, midlands, and highlands AEZs was 19%, 17%, and 12% respectively. The PCI showed that those highlands had moderately concentrated rainfall but both lowlands, and midlands, had an irregular distribution of rainfall. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) indicated that highland areas had moderate variability in rainfall in all seasons except winter. In contrast, the low and midlands had shown high variability of rainfall (>30%) in all seasons. From a seasonal perspective, both CV and PCI revealed that the winter season showed more variability than others. Moreover, a significant increasing trend of annual rainfall was observed in the highlands AEZs (Bore 15.3mm/year and Solemo14.6mm/year), lowland AEZs (Chembe 10.9mm/year, Dawa 8mm/year and Bitata 7.8mm/year) as well as midland AEZs (Kercha 14.5mm/year) at a significant level of 5%. Therefore, strategies should be designed to use additional water resources for irrigation; and provide short-cycle grown and drought-resistant crops in the rest of the midlands and lowlands AEZs.

GIS-based spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall trends under climate change in different agro-ecological zones of Wolaita zone, south Ethiopia

“…In the short rainy Belg season, moderate variability (25.77 %) was observed in the south-central midland AEZ, whereas the northeast highland AEZ had higher variability (46.25 %). This finding contrasts with Sahilu et al [ 57 ] findings, who identified moderate rainfall variability (CV <30 %) in the highland areas, with values of 28 %, 30 %, and 29 % during the spring, summer, and autumn seasons, respectively. Notably, Birara [ 39 ] reported conflicting results, indicating that regions with low annual rainfall exhibited high rainfall coefficient of variability.…”

“…Negative anomalies indicate a potential decline in stream flows and groundwater levels, posing a significant danger to irrigated agriculture and related industries [ 93 ]. According to Sahilu et al [ 57 ], short-term fluctuations are caused by changes in El Niño (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and differential warming over the Indian Ocean.…”

“…Many researchers i.e., Worku et al [ 54 ]; Bewket & Conway, [ 55 ]; Degefu & Bewket, [ 56 ]; Sahilu et al [ 57 ], advocated for more AEZ-based local-level studies on rainfall variability and trends, as large-scale studies often mask spatial and temporal differences. Due to the country's diverse microclimates, ongoing investigation into rainfall variability is essential across AEZs.…”