Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

Global warming has altered the uniformity of precipitation in Inner Mongolia, China, eventually leading to droughts. Further studies are necessary to determine the relationship between the concentration of precipitation and drought.Therefore, we assessed the spatial and temporal characteristics of the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in Inner Mongolia in the past and predict changes in the three indices under different scenarios in the future (2018-2100) using measured model data and Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall trend analysis. The correlation between PCD/PCP and SPEI was explored using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results showed that the spatial distribution of PCD and PCP in Inner Mongolia exhibited significant east-west differences. The PCD values were 0.42-0.76, with high-value areas in the east. PCD showed a decreasing trend in both historical and future scenarios, indicating an even distribution of precipitation and an increased risk of drought. The PCP values were 190 -226 , with high-value areas mainly in the western region. Except for in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, PCP values in the historical and RCP2.6 scenarios showed a decreasing trend, indicating an earlier onset of maximum precipitation. SPEI values ranged between −1.23 and 1.17, with all future scenarios showing a decreasing trend and the historical scenario showing an increasing trend. The stations with positive correlation between SPEI and PCD accounted for 89.13, 67.39, 91.3, and 95.65% of Inner Mongolia, while those with positive correlation with PCP accounted for 43.47, 60.87, 56.52, and 4.35%, indicating that the correlation between drought variation and precipitation concentration is strong. These results can help reduce and prevent droughts and floods caused by changes in precipitation patterns and provide a basis for the rational use of water resources for preventing droughts and making relief decisions.

Remote Sensing Identification and the Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought Characteristics in Inner Mongolia, China

“…In addition, there is also a close relationship between the degree of drought and extreme weather in Inner Mongolia. Du et al [66] found that after 2000, the frequency of drought events in four regions of Inner Mongolia, namely Duolun, Xilinhot, Hailar and Shiziwangqi, increased significantly under the condition that the frequency of extreme heat events increased significantly. Those findings demonstrate that the adoption of active and effective ecological protection measures not only possesses some reference worth for controlling and mitigating drought and reducing the risk of natural disaster occurrence in the future, but also has an important scientific significance and strategic value for enhancing the response to ecological risks and geopolitical security in Inner Mongolia in the context of global warming [53].…”

Evolutionary Characteristics of Daytime and Nocturnal Precipitation Heterogeneity in Gansu Province, Northwest China

“…On the other hand, the evolutionary characteristics of annual distribution and the diurnal variation of precipitation have also attracted extensive attention, but the existing understanding is insufficient. Based on a series of indicators represented by PCD, PCP, PCI (Precipitation Concentration Index), and CI (Concentration Index), the precipitation concentration and its changes in Northeast China [33], Inner Mongolia [34], the Huaihe River [35], Liaohe River [36], Weihe River [37] and the Three Gorges Reservoir area [38] have been effectively revealed. The above results confirm that the spatial distribution of precipitation concentration in China has complex meridional and zonal variability, and the correlation index generally shows a downward trend.…”