Spatiotemporal Variation of Water Supply and Demand Balance under Drought Risk and Its Relationship with Maize Yield: A Case Study in Midwestern Jilin Province, China

Abstract

Under the background of global warming, the frequent occurrence and long-term persistence of drought events have substantial negative effects on agricultural production. As the main maize production area in midwestern Jilin Province, frequent drought and a shortage of irrigation water pose substantial threats to the production of maize. We analyzed the balance of water supply and demand in each growth period and the degree of maize yield affected by drought. The results indicate that the FIO-ESM climate model can effectively simulate the changes in temperature and precipitation, and was highly applicable to the study area. From 1980 to 2020, the drought risk indices for the sowing to jointing, jointing to tasseling, tasseling to milk-ripe, and milk-ripe to maturity stages were 0.62, 0.52, 0.48, and 0.60, respectively. In the future, the chances of a RCP8.5 scenario drought risk and an enhanced RCP4.5 scenario have eased. Spatially, the high-risk areas shift in a “west−central−southwest” pattern. Effective precipitation will decrease in the future, while the increasing water requirement of maize increases the dependence on irrigation water. The irrigation requirement index is more than 70% for all periods, particularly in the milk-ripe to maturity stage. The relative meteorological yields were positively correlated with the CWDI of the whole growth period, with the rate of reduction in maize yield and the yield reduction coefficient of variation at a high level of risk between 1980 and 2020. In the future, the negative impact of drought risk on the yield of maize lessened with no obvious trend in production. In particular, the rate of reduction and reduction coefficient of variation for the RCP8.5 scenario were 1.24 and 1.09, respectively.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of high winds in Jilin Province during 1982–2021

“…With the gradual rise in temperature, the ground is heated and warmed, convection intensifies, and strong wind power at high altitudes is transmitted downward, tearing the mulch and causing the death of seedlings through wind depletion (Wen & Qin, 2008). Excessive wind speed affects the evapotranspiration process of plants, acting on the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum, thus affecting the water supply–demand equilibrium of plants during the reproductive period, which in turn affects the agricultural production process (Ma et al, 2021).…”

Agricultural Irrigation Water Requirement and Its Response to Climatic Factors Based on Remote Sensing and Single Crop Coefficient Method

“…For drylands, climatic factors are the most important influencing factors (Yin et al, 2020). With global warming, the irrigation water requirement of Maize has changed greatly from year to year (Ma et al, 2021;Oumarou Abdoulaye et al, 2019). The irrigation water requirement of Maize varied greatly in different growth stages.…”

Integrated Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of Jilin Province, China

“…The study area is mainly located in the central and western regions of Jilin Province (Figure 1). The main grain-producing area of Jilin Province is located in the transition zone with a semi-humid to semi-arid climate in the middle temperate zone [11,12]. The region is flat, vast farmland, a fertile land, which is one of the worlds' three black soil distribution centers.…”