Spatiotemporal variations of precipitation patterns in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

Context With escalating global climate change, regional flood disasters have become increasingly prevalent. Precipitation, as a primary influencing factor, has garnered significant attention. Aims This study is based on precipitation data to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (MLYB), trying to explore more concise methods for precipitation forecasting. Methods Statistical methods were employed to analyse historical precipitation patterns, followed by forecasting future trends using statistical time series models. Key results Precipitation in the MLYB exhibited a decreasing trend during 1961–2010, which shifted to an increasing trend after 2011, becoming more pronounced since 2017. Precipitation patterns in the MLYB were clearly increasing in the east and decreasing in the west, with the Taihu Basin showing the greatest rise. The ARIMA model predicted a significant increase in precipitation after 2022. Conclusions In recent years, precipitation in the MLYB has significantly increased, especially in downstream areas. Although the ARIMA model offers an effective and reasonably simple method for short-term forecast, it struggles with complex terrain influences. Implications These findings provide a theoretical basis for flood prevention in the MLYB, as well as a reference for precipitation prediction simulations in data-limited regions.