Spawning stock recruitment creates misleading dynamics under predation release in ecosystem and multi-species models

McGregor, Vidette; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Dunn, Matthew R.

doi:10.7717/peerj.7308

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Diatoms had the highest CV at 79%, followed by carnivorous zooplankton CV at 46%. The effects of uncertainty from specification of the spawning stock recruitment relationship as it was applied to the small pelagic fish species group were explored in McGregor, Fulton & Dunn (2019a). These effects were seen right through to the ecosystem indicators, and would likely be more evident if more than one species group were directly affected in the study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model

McGregor

Fulton

Dunn

2020

PeerJ

Self Cite

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Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncertainty on the model’s dynamics by comparing the model outputs resulting from many initial condition perturbations. At the species group level, we found some species groups were more sensitive than others, with lower trophic level species groups generally more sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions. We recommend testing for robust system dynamics by assessing the consistency of ecosystem indicators in response to fishing pressure under perturbed initial conditions. In any set of scenarios explored using complex end-to-end ecosystem models, we recommend that associated uncertainty analysis be included with perturbations of the initial conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model

McGregor

Fulton

Dunn

2020

PeerJ

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…Diatoms had the highest CV at 79%, followed by carnivorous zooplankton CV at 46%. The effects of uncertainty from specification of the spawning stock recruitment relationship as it was applied to the small pelagic fish species group were explored in McGregor et al (2019a). These effects were seen right through to the ecosystem indicators, and would likely be more evident if more than one species group were directly affected in the study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2019a) ( Table 3) at each timestep for all model simulations. Mean trophic level, diversity and the ratio of pelagic to total biomass were chosen as they responded to fishing scenarios for the Chatham Rise Atlantis model (McGregor et al, 2019a), but didn't require catch for the calculation (so we could apply them to model runs here with or without fishing included). We analysed the results for consistencies or discrepancies in shifts of the ecosystem reflected through these indicators, with particular focus on the response of the system when heavy fishing became established during the mid-1970s.…”

Section: Ecosystem Indicatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Chatham Rise Atlantis model was selected for this study as it has been shown to have sound dynamics with respect to our current knowledge of the system (McGregor et al, 2019b), has been tested for sensitivity to its ocean forcing variables (McGregor et al, 2019b) and spawning stock recruitment assumptions (McGregor et al, 2019a), but is yet to be tested with respect to its initial conditions. The initial conditions for the Chatham Rise Atlantis model were specified to reflect the ecosystem in its unfished, or virgin state.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Peer Review #2 of "Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model (v0.1)"

Townsend¹

2020

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Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncertainty on the model's dynamics by comparing the model outputs resulting from many initial condition perturbations. At the species group level, we found some species groups were more sensitive than others, with lower trophic level species groups generally more sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions. We recommend testing for robust system dynamics by assessing the consistency of ecosystem indicators in response to fishing pressure under perturbed initial conditions. We recommend that in any set of scenarios explored using complex end-to-end ecosystem models, that associated uncertainty analysis include perturbations of the initial conditions.

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Trade-offs and uncertainties in Northeast Pacific herring fisheries: ecosystem modelling and management strategy evaluation

Surma

Pitcher

Pakhomov

2021

ICES Journal of Marine Science

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Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) plays an important and multifaceted role in the Northeast Pacific as a forage fish in coastal ecosystems, target species for commercial fisheries, and culturally significant subsistence resource for coastal communities. This study comparatively evaluated herring fisheries management strategy performance relative to ecological and socioeconomic objectives. Management strategy evaluation employed a mass-balanced ecosystem operating model and accounted for parameter uncertainty, stock assessment error, and strategy implementation error through Monte Carlo resampling. Results revealed a notable trade-off between stable herring catches and high biomasses of herring and several predators. Herring biomass control point values influenced this trade-off more than harvest control rule form. All British Columbia and Alaska strategies yielded similar ecological and socioeconomic impacts relative to the unfished herring baseline. Precautionary strategies recommended for forage fish combined high ecosystem benefits and socioeconomic costs. Reducing fishing mortality fourfold within an existing strategy suggested a possible compromise solution to this trade-off. However, ecological impacts of all strategies were sensitive to operating model parameter uncertainty, stock assessment error, and strategy implementation error, with the potential for undesirable ecosystem states across all strategies. This study suggests trade-offs among management objectives should be considered in pursuing ecosystem-based fisheries management for forage fish.

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Spawning stock recruitment creates misleading dynamics under predation release in ecosystem and multi-species models

Cited by 4 publications

References 38 publications

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model

Peer Review #2 of "Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model (v0.1)"

Trade-offs and uncertainties in Northeast Pacific herring fisheries: ecosystem modelling and management strategy evaluation

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