Speeding up or Slowing Down? Analysis of Race Results in Elite-level Swimming from 2011-2019 to Predict Future Olympic Games Performances

Crowley, Emmet; Ng, Kwok; Mujika, Iñigo; Powell, Cormac

doi:10.1080/1091367x.2021.1952592

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Performance improvements or declines depend on many factors, including technology, sports science, support for a particular sport, talent identification, investment of time, and effectiveness of training protocols ( 800 – 802 ). Advances in elite performance can also vary between individual events in one sport, as is the case for Olympic swimming competitions, with strong trends for improvement in some strokes and a relative plateau in others ( 803 ). With an increasing number of former Olympians and elite athletes now participating in masters competitions, age-group records are being surpassed and seemingly unattainable performances recorded such as the sub-3 hour marathon by a 70-yr-old man ( 804 ).…”

Section: Summary Conclusion and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The molecular athlete: exercise physiology from mechanisms to medals

Furrer

Hawley

Handschin

2023

Physiological Reviews

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Human skeletal muscle demonstrates remarkable plasticity, adapting to numerous external stimuli including the habitual level of contractile loading. Accordingly, muscle function and exercise capacity encompass a broad spectrum, from inactive individuals with low levels of endurance and strength, to elite athletes who produce prodigious performances underpinned by pleiotropic training-induced muscular adaptations. Our current understanding of the signal integration, interpretation and output coordination of the cellular and molecular mechanisms that govern muscle plasticity across this continuum is incomplete. As such, training methods and their application to elite athletes largely rely on a "trial and error" approach with the experience and practices of successful coaches and athletes often providing the bases for "post hoc" scientific enquiry and research. This review provides a synopsis of the morphological and functional changes along with the molecular mechanisms underlying exercise adaptation to endurance- and resistance-based training. These traits are placed in the context of innate genetic and inter-individual differences in exercise capacity and performance, with special considerations given to the ageing athletes. Collectively, we provide a comprehensive overview of skeletal muscle plasticity in response to different modes of exercise, and how such adaptations translate from "molecules to medals".

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Section: Summary Conclusion and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The molecular athlete: exercise physiology from mechanisms to medals

Furrer

Hawley

Handschin

2023

Physiological Reviews

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“…2,4 Swimming is primarily divided into two formats: (a) short course (SC) (25 m pool); and (b) long course (LC) (50 m pool). Within high-performance swimming, the Olympic Games and the World Championships are the two premier competitions on the swimming calendar 5 and occur every 4 and 2 years, respectively (not withstanding COVID-19 induced postponements over the last 2 years). Given that both competitions are in the LC format, LC swimming is viewed as the more important format.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the competition programmes of elite and sub-elite swimmers: The influence of sex, stroke and race distance

Johns,

Philipson,

Powell

2023

International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching

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The purpose of this study was to analyse contemporary performance data in elite and sub-elite Irish swimmers, to explore the number of days and races required for swimmers to achieve their fastest competitive performances and how this may be influenced by sex, stroke and race distance. The initial dataset consisted of n = 3930 observations on n = 56 swimmers, with n1 = 2709 (68.9%) long course (LC) observations and n2 = 1221 (31.1%) short course (SC) observations. The main findings indicated that, firstly, the swimmers (LC & SC) produced their fastest swim in their first race of the season, approximately 39% of the time. Secondly, there were no significant differences between male and female swimmers regarding the number of days and races required to achieve their fastest performances. The final key finding identified the number of days and races between first and fastest performance was influenced by (a) stroke, for example, LC and SC freestyle and individual medley swimmers required less races and shorter timeframes to fastest swim, with breaststroke requiring the greatest number of mean days in LC and SC formats and (b) race distance, for example, across LC and SC, 400 m swimmers required fewer races (n = 1.83 & 1.64) and shorter time frame (n = 24.83 & 21.26 days) to fastest swim than other distances. These findings are valuable to coaches and practitioners, as (a) they can provide guidelines when designing competition programmes, and (b) support exploration of what a swimmer's competition may look like in terms of volume and duration to support the fastest performance.

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Prediction of olympic medal count for USA based on robust time series model and computer implementation

He,

Wang

2024

Third International Conference on Electronic Information Engineering and Data Processing (EIEDP 2024)

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Based on the medals won by United States in 28 times Summer Olympic Games from 1896 to 2020, this study predicts the number of medals won by United States in 2024 and 2028 Summer Olympic Games. Considering that the host effect will produce "outlier data" on the number of medals and affect the prediction model, this paper constructs a robust threeparameter exponential smooth prediction model by combining BOX-COX transform with three-parameter exponential smooth prediction model. Through the prediction test on the number of gold medals and total medals in 2016 and 2020 Olympic Games of the United States, it is found that the robust prediction method is better than the traditional prediction method significantly, and the relative error is less than 5.13%. In view of this, the robust prediction model is applied to predict the number of gold medals and total number of medals in 2024 and 2028 Summer Olympics of the United States. The forecast results show that the number of gold medals in 2024 and 2028 is 41 and 39 respectively, and the total number of medals is 121 and 109 respectively.

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Speeding up or Slowing Down? Analysis of Race Results in Elite-level Swimming from 2011-2019 to Predict Future Olympic Games Performances

Cited by 5 publications

References 19 publications

The molecular athlete: exercise physiology from mechanisms to medals

The molecular athlete: exercise physiology from mechanisms to medals

Analysis of the competition programmes of elite and sub-elite swimmers: The influence of sex, stroke and race distance

Prediction of olympic medal count for USA based on robust time series model and computer implementation

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