SPI-Based Drought Classification in Italy: Influence of Different Probability Distribution Functions

Moccia, Benedetta; Mineo, Claudio; Ridolfi, Elena; Russo, Fabio; Napolitano, Francesco

doi:10.3390/w14223668

Cited by 21 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…In contrast, SPI stands out from PDSI and SPEI due to its simple calculation, flexibility in terms of timescales, and low data requirements (only precipitation) [12,13], which led to its recommendation by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a preferred meteorological drought index [14]. The superiority of SPI indices in the evaluation of drought has been proved in different areas across the world, including South Africa, Finland, Turkey, Iran, and Italy [3,[15][16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

Ghazi

Dutt

Haghighi

2023

Water

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Future changes (2015–2100) in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were investigated using an average mean ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) with high-resolution datasets in socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In order to project the drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated. Overall, the results revealed that precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin will decrease by 3.21% and 7.18% in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results based on 6-month-timescale SPI indices projected more “Extremely dry” events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequency of “Extremely dry” months in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 is expected to increase by 14, 7, 14, 10, 5, 14, and 7 months for the Mahabad, Maragheh, Saqez, Sarab, Tabriz, Takab, and Urmia stations, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of “Extremely wet” months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The results of this study provide useful insight for considering drought prevention measures to be implemented in advance for Lake Urmia Basin, which is currently experiencing various environmental issues.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

Ghazi

Dutt

Haghighi

2023

Water

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“…Finally, we found the best-fitted probability distributions for annual total precipitation, streamflow and annual mean soil moisture content follow a mixture of gamma, lognormal, normal and Weibull distributions across Australia. Globally the existence of a range of distributions has also been reported by authors including for the USA and Canada (Guttman, 1999;Markovic, 1965); Europe (Lloyd-Hughes & Saunders, 2002); Japan (Yue & Hashino, 2007); Brazil (Blain, 2011); Sudan (Mohamed & Ibrahim, 2015); China (Li et al, 2020b;Wu et al, 2021) and Italy (Moccia et al, 2022) questioning the usual approach of estimating the standardised indices based on gamma distribution. Furthermore, Laimighofer & Laaha, (2022) found that choice of distribution was one of the main sources of uncertainty in estimating SPI leading to substantial errors in drought detection and classification.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Drought Propagation and Recovery Behaviours Across 407 Australian Catchments

Aryal,

Zheng,

Zhang

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A reliable understanding of linkages between meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts (MD, HD and AD respectively) is crucial to building resilience and planning for future climate changes. Despite Australia being prone to severe droughts, lagtimes of propagation (and recovery) from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural droughts across its large hydroclimatic regions are not well understood. Therefore, we investigate the characteristics of drought propagation and recovery time lags for droughts of four timescales and a combination of drought onset and cessation criteria in 407 unregulated catchments within six major precipitation zones across Australia. We find that the propagation and recovery lags are dependent on climatic conditions, drought criteria and timescales. The average propagation times from MD to HD across Australia varied from 0.8 to 1.7 months for monthly timescales, increasing to 2 to 4.5 months for 12-monthly timescales. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 1.3 to 3.7 and 1.7 to 7.5 months respectively. Similarly, the average propagation times from MD to AD ranged from 0.9 to 1.9 months for monthly timescales, increasing to 0.8 to 5 months for 12-monthly timescales. The corresponding recovery lagtimes were 0.7 to 2.8 and 0.3 to 9.4 months respectively. For droughts of smaller timescales, propagation and recovery lags are linearly correlated with recovery lagtimes consistently greater than the propagation times. As the timescale increases, these relationships weaken suggesting effects of other catchment attributes (e.g. groundwater contributions) on lag relationships. Notably, recovery lagtimes are generally longer for the high-yielding catchments in eastern Australia compared to the other regions

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“…Meanwhile, n represents the count of opposing rainfall occurrences during the same month within the rainy season on any given time scale. As a result, the calculated SPIs for each month within the statistical period are denoted as Z, and they are subsequently normalized [65][66][67]. Once the index is computed, the drought intensity in the SPI index is determined based on the values presented in Table 3.…”

Section: The Standardized Precipitation Index (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhancing Environmental Sustainability in a Critical Region: Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Tourism

Javan,

Mirabi,

Hamidi

et al. 2023

Civ Eng J

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The Ardabil Plain is pivotal in the national agricultural sector and ranks among the leading agricultural and horticultural production provinces. The primary objective of this study is to enhance environmental sustainability in this critical and vulnerable region, particularly in the face of imminent droughts and climate change. The study examines the impacts of climate change on agriculture and tourism in the area. It puts forward suggestions for implementing sustainable practices to safeguard the well-being of the local population. The results indicate a 38% reduction in precipitation, especially in the autumn season, with a possible alteration in the timing and strength of rainfall. Also, a notable decline in production volume, particularly in a specific region of the Ardabil plain, has been observed. The Ardabil Plain currently produces 284,182 tons of wheat, with 204,980 tons from irrigated crops and 79,202 tons from rain-fed crops. However, the projected future scenario indicates a decrease in total wheat production to 209,196 tons, with 160,125 tons from irrigated crops and 49,071 tons from rain-fed crops. This decline in production is expected to lead to a total net income loss of approximately -$75,389,059, with -$45,095,663 attributed to irrigated crops and -$30,293,396 to rain-fed crops. The study findings suggest that the availability of water sources in certain regions may prompt a shift in farming land from the north to the south of the plain to promote environmental sustainability. This demographic change could have significant financial and social implications for the region's growth and prosperity. Moreover, increasing temperatures in the western and northern regions pose flood risks and uncomfortable travel conditions, particularly concerning given the reliance on tourism and potential unemployment consequences. It becomes imperative to adopt sustainable practices and manage resources effectively to ensure the region's resilience and prosperity in the face of environmental challenges. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-11-01 Full Text: PDF

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SPI-Based Drought Classification in Italy: Influence of Different Probability Distribution Functions

Cited by 21 publications

References 44 publications

Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran

Drought Propagation and Recovery Behaviours Across 407 Australian Catchments

Enhancing Environmental Sustainability in a Critical Region: Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Tourism

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