Spin-up time and internal variability analysis for overlapping time slices in a regional climate model

Lavín-Gullón, A.; Milovac, Josipa; García-Díez, Markel; Fernández, Jesús Fernández

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06560-2

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The overlapping periods (2018-2020 and 2068-2070) were compared (not shown). No significant climatological differences were found several month after simulation start, in accordance with the findings from Lavin-Gullon et al (2022).…”

Section: The Cosmo-clm Ensemblesupporting

confidence: 90%

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Hundhausen

Feldmann²,

Laube³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Heat extremes and associated impacts are considered the most pressing issue for German regional governments with respect to climate adaptation. We explore the potential of an unique high-resolution convection permitting (2.8 km), multi-GCM ensemble with COSMO-CLM regional simulations (1971–2100) over Germany regarding heat extremes and related impacts. We find an improved mean temperature beyond the effect of a better representation of orography on the convection permitting scale, with reduced bias particularly during summer. The projected increase in temperature and its variance favors the development of longer and hotter heat waves, especially in late summer and early autumn. In a 2° (3°) warmer world, a 26 % (100 %) increase in the Heat Wave Magnitude Index is anticipated. Human heat stress (UTCI > 32°C) and local-specific parameters tailored to climate adaptation, revealed a dependency on the major landscapes, resulting in significant higher heat exposure in flat regions as the Rhine Valley, accompanied by the strongest absolute increase. A non-linear, exponential increase is anticipated for parameters characterizing strong heat stress (UTCI > 32°C, tropical nights, very hot days). Providing local-specific and tailored climate information, we demonstrate the potential of convection permitting simulations to facilitate improved impact studies and narrow the gap between climate modelling and stakeholder requirements for climate adaptation.

show abstract

Section: The Cosmo-clm Ensemblesupporting

confidence: 90%

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Hundhausen

Feldmann²,

Laube³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The overlapping periods (2018-2020 and 2068-2070) were compared (not shown). No relevant differences were found sev-eral months after simulation start, in accordance with the findings from Lavin-Gullon et al (2023).…”

Section: The Cosmo-clm Ensemblesupporting

confidence: 89%

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Hundhausen,

Feldmann,

Laube

et al. 2023

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Heat extremes and associated impacts are considered the most pressing issue for German regional governments with respect to climate adaptation. We explore the potential of a unique high-resolution, convection-permitting (2.8 m), multi-GCM (global climate model) ensemble with COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling Climate Limited-area Modelling) regional simulations (1971–2100) over Germany regarding heat extremes and related impacts. We find a systematically reduced cold bias especially in summer in the convection-permitting simulations compared to the driving simulations with a grid size of 7 km and parametrized convection. The projected increase in temperature and its variance favors the development of longer and hotter heat waves, especially in late summer and early autumn. In a 2 ∘C (3 ∘C) warmer world, a 26 % (100 %) increase in the heat wave magnitude index is anticipated. Human heat stress (universal thermal climate index (UTCI) > 32 ∘C) and region-specific parameters tailored to climate adaptation revealed a dependency on the major landscapes, resulting in significantly higher heat exposure in flat regions such as the Rhine Valley, accompanied by the strongest absolute increase. A nonlinear, exponential increase is anticipated for parameters characterizing strong heat stress (UTCI > 32 ∘C, tropical nights, very hot days). Providing region-specific and tailored climate information, we demonstrate the potential of convection-permitting simulations to facilitate improved impact studies and narrow the gap between climate modeling and stakeholder requirements for climate adaptation.

show abstract

“…The magnitudes of these inland T2 differences are overall small, making it hard to clearly distinguish effects from ROMS coupling and WRF internal variability. Lavin-Gullon et al (2022) show that the magnitude of internal variations might not be small for slow responding model components. However, simulations in this study all use spectral nudging that would act to limit internal variability of the regional model (Alexandru et al, 2009).…”

Section: Figure 12mentioning

confidence: 85%

A climate modeling study over Northern Africa and the Mediterranean basin with multi-physics ensemble and coupling to a regional ocean modeling system

Xie,

Chandan,

Peltier

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We have developed a physics ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations for the Middle East, Mediterranean and North Africa (MEMNA) regions. These simulations use different configurations for the cumulus, microphysics, surface layer, planetary boundary layer, and land surface schemes and are forced by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) General Circulation Model for the historical period 1979–1993. We have also created a complementary ensemble in which the WRF model is fully-coupled to the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) that simulates the dynamics of the entire Mediterranean Sea. Analysis of our ensembles reveals that the simulated precipitation and near surface temperature (T2) fields in WRF are largely influenced by the cumulus and the land surface schemes during the summer and winter seasons, respectively. The coupling of Weather Research and Forecasting to Regional Ocean Modelling System yields Mediterranean sea surface temperatures that are directly correlated with T2 and have higher spatial resolution than the global model. Meanwhile no significant difference is found between the atmospheric fields from the coupled and uncoupled runs because the Community Earth System Model sea surface temperatures over the Mediterranean, that are used for surface forcing in the uncoupled runs, are already in close agreement with both Regional Ocean Modelling System and observations. We conclude that our high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean modelling system is capable of producing climate data of good quality, and we identify those combinations of physics schemes that result in an acceptable level of bias that facilitates their use in future studies.

show abstract

Spin-up time and internal variability analysis for overlapping time slices in a regional climate model

Cited by 3 publications

References 46 publications

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection permitting climate ensemble over Germany

Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany

A climate modeling study over Northern Africa and the Mediterranean basin with multi-physics ensemble and coupling to a regional ocean modeling system

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About