Sprayed to Death: Path Dependence, Lock-in and Pest Control Strategies

Is one path enough? Multiple paths and path interaction as an extension of path dependency theory

“…This means that a path is affected not only by initial conditions or choices, but also by the entire sequence of events along the path (Mahoney, 2000). 7 Examples of self-reinforcing mechanisms include technological externalities, learning, uncertainty reduction and positive network externalities (Arthur, 1988;Cowan and Gunby, 1996;Vergne and Durand, 2010), but also functional, power, and legitimation mechanisms (Mahoney, 2000) (for an overview of self-reinforcing mechanisms found in previous literature, see Dobusch and Schüßler (2012)). …”

“…Although the development of a path is often described as a process of convergence, in which one technology is selected among a larger number of alternatives (cf. David, 1985;Arthur, 1988;Cowan, 1990;Cowan and Gunby, 1996), the emergence of a path is clearly related to the point in time when a selection has been made. Paths are, thus, seen as an outcome of technological competition, in which one of the initially available alternatives wins and becomes increasingly irreversible over time (David, 1985).…”

“…Paths are usually implicitly conceptualized as persistent patterns in the development of a technology, a company or an industry (Cowan and Gunby, 1996;Rycroft and Kash, 2002;Sydow et al, 2009). Even if the early stages of path dependency allow for some degree of variety, by later phases there is only one path left; the number of alternative choices gradually decreases (David, 1985;Arthur, 1989;Cowan and Gunby, 1996) until companies or entire industries become locked-in to one -often inferioroption, e.g.…”

“…For example, Arthur (1989) suggests that a path is created through sequences of choices between competing technologies, such as light-water vs. heavywater nuclear power reactors or crystalline-vs. amorphous-silicon solar photovoltaic cell technologies. Similarly, Cowan and Gunby (1996) describe competition between different types of agricultural pest control technologies as choices between different paths and Mazzoleni (1997) discusses the selection of open-and closed-loop numerically controlled machine tool designs in Japan and the US respectively. In a related tradition, paths are thought of as technological trajectories or paradigms, within which technologies develop over time, constrained by physical, cognitive, normative and regulative borders (cf.…”

Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change

“…While the empirical literature is quite thin, some studies have explored the issue of increasing returns and technology lock-in for competing technologies within the energy and environment arenas, including analysis of renewable energy and fossil fuels (Cowan and Kline, 1996), the internal combustion engine and alternatively fueled vehicles (Cowan and Hulten, 1996), pesticides and integrated pest management (Cowan and Gunby, 1996), technologies for electricity generation (Islas, 1997), nuclear power reactor designs (Cowan, 1990), and the transition from hydrocarbon-based fuels (Kemp, 1997).…”