Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

Zhang, Wenjun; Jiang, Feng; Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Timmermann, Axel

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-23411-6

Cited by 51 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…However, different from Park et al (2019), the present study suggested that the negative NTA SST anomalies could induce anomalous warm SST in the southeastern tropical Pacific via the local meridional circulation before the mid-1980s. In addition, Zhang et al (2021) recently indicated that the NTA-ENSO relationship is a one-way Pacific to Atlantic connection, which is different from the present study and other previous researches (Ham et al 2013;Wang et al 2017;Ding et al 2017). It means that the connections between the Pacific and Atlantic should be further studied.…”

Section: Summary and Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 98%

Strengthening impacts of spring sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic on Indian Ocean dipole after the mid-1980s

et al. 2022

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It is well known that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study, it is found that spring–summer north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can contribute to the development of the IOD since the mid-1980s as well as ENSO. After the mid-1980s, an anticyclonic circulation over the subtropical northeastern Pacific could be excited by cool NTA SST anomalies in spring and summer due to a Gill-type Rossby-wave response. A low-level cyclonic circulation appears in the west Pacific in turn. The anomalous lower-level southwesterlies on the southeastern flank of the cyclonic circulation reduce the climatological wind speed, and thus, warm SST anomalies appear and extend to the central tropical Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. As a result, Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific region is changed, with anomalous descending in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and ascending in the central tropical Pacific. The descending branch of anomalous Walker circulation generates surface southeasterly wind anomalies along the coast off Sumatra and lifts the thermocline in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, which produces a positive IOD event in autumn. Such a cross-basin mechanism is supported by a coupled model experiment with warm SST perturbations over the NTA. In contrast, although cold NTA SST anomalies can induce warm SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific through interhemispheric meridional circulation before the mid-1980s, the responses in the tropical Indian Ocean are rather weak. In addition, the enhancement in the NTA-IOD relationship after the mid-1980s is suggested to result from the changes in the SST mean state under the context of global warming, which is confirmed by two coupled model experiments with different mean SST backgrounds.

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Section: Summary and Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 98%

Strengthening impacts of spring sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic on Indian Ocean dipole after the mid-1980s

et al. 2022

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“…

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropics. The spatiotemporal characteristics of ENSO exhibit variations (Dieppois et al, 2021;Wittenberg, 2009) driven by chaotic atmosphere-ocean dynamics (Fedorov et al, 2003;Zhang et al, 2021) and sources of variability from outside the tropical Pacific (Meehl et al, 2001). Given the global reach of ENSO and its impacts (Diaz et al, 2001), understanding and predicting changes in ENSO is a major challenge for the scientific community.In the last decade, it has become evident that climate variability and changes in other ocean basins can affect the tropical Pacific and ENSO (Cai et al, 2019).

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confidence: 99%

Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

Trascasa-Castro

Ruprich‐Robert

Castruccio

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropics. The spatiotemporal characteristics of ENSO exhibit variations (Dieppois et al., 2021;Wittenberg, 2009) driven by chaotic atmosphere-ocean dynamics (Fedorov et al., 2003;Zhang et al., 2021) and sources of variability from outside the tropical Pacific (Meehl et al., 2001). Given the global reach of ENSO and its impacts (Diaz et al., 2001), understanding and predicting changes in ENSO is a major challenge for the scientific community.In the last decade, it has become evident that climate variability and changes in other ocean basins can affect the tropical Pacific and ENSO (Cai et al., 2019). One example is the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) on the mean climate in the tropical Pacific (e.g., Ruprich-Robert et al., 2017). However, the extent to which AMV affects ENSO remains unclear (

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“…Compared to the specific mechanisms of ENSO for TNA SST, its feedback is still in debate. For example, Zhang et al (2021) has revisited the TNA-ENSO relationship by considering ENSO's autocorrelation within its internal cycle, indicating TNA SST may not be a precursor for ENSO. Therefore, there are more works to be done in this bilateral trans-basin teleconnection and its change under greenhouse warming.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced Eastern Pacific ENSO‐Tropical North Atlantic Connection Under Greenhouse Warming

Liu

Lin

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the most prominent interannual mode in the Earth's climate system, influences global weather and climate via multiple teleconnection pathways (M. Cai et al., 2019;Yeh et al., 2018). One of the most important and well-known ENSO teleconnections to Atlantic Ocean is the sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). The changes in TNA SST associated with ENSO, also referred to the North Tropical Atlantic Mode (Wu et al., 2004;Yang et al., 2018), have broad impacts on devastating extreme weather events over the surrounding regions (

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Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

Cited by 51 publications

References 48 publications

Strengthening impacts of spring sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic on Indian Ocean dipole after the mid-1980s

Strengthening impacts of spring sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic on Indian Ocean dipole after the mid-1980s

Warm Phase of AMV Damps ENSO Through Weakened Thermocline Feedback

Enhanced Eastern Pacific ENSO‐Tropical North Atlantic Connection Under Greenhouse Warming

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