SSHAP In-Focus: COVID-19, Uncertainty, Vulnerability and Recovery in India

Abstract

This paper addresses COVID-19 in India, looking at how the interplay of inequality, vulnerability, and the pandemic has compounded uncertainties for poor and marginalised groups, leading to insecurity, stigma and a severe loss of livelihoods. A strict government lockdown destroyed the incomes of farmers and urban informal workers and triggered an exodus of migrant workers from Indian cities, a mass movement which placed additional pressures on the country's rural communities. Elsewhere in the country, lockdown restrictions and pandemic response have coincided with heatwaves, floods and cyclones, impeding disaster response and relief. At the same time, the pandemic has been politicised to target minority groups (such as Muslims, Dalits), suppress dissent, and undermine constitutional values. The paper focuses on how COVID-19 has intersected with and multiplied existing uncertainties faced by different vulnerable groups and communities in India who have remained largely invisible in India's development story. With the biggest challenge for government now being to mitigate the further fall of millions of people into extreme poverty, the brief also reflects on pathways for recovery and transformation, including opportunities for rural revival, inclusive welfare, and community response. This brief is based on a review of existing published and grey literature, and 23 interviews with experts and practitioners from 12 states in India, including representation from domestic and international NGOs, and local civil society organisations. It was developed for the Social Science in Humanitarian Action Platform (SSHAP) by Justin Pickard, Shilpi Srivastava, Lyla Mehta (IDS), and Mihir R. Bhatt. Some of the cases draw on ongoing research of the TAPESTRY project, which explores bottom-up transformations in marginal environments across India and Bangladesh.

Key Considerations: India's Deadly Second COVID-19 Wave: Addressing Impacts and Building Preparedness Against Future Waves

“…11 The first wave affected India's poor and marginalised more than the middle class and elites (see SSHAP brief). 12 In contrast, the second wave has affected everyone, including urban elites, though the long-term impacts will disproportionately affect the poor and marginalised. We have seen untold devastation: images of burning pyres across North India, crematoriums running out of space and wood, and dead bodies floating in the River Ganges.…”

“…375 per day) and increased informality, poverty, debt, and inequality in India (see SSHAP brief). 12 The second wave has further deepened this distress. Economists have warned that depleting household savings and falling incomes will have an impact on domestic consumption, which accounts for almost 60% of GDP.…”

“…There has been an intensification of the precarity of marginalised groups such as poor women, Dalits, Muslims, and Adivasis, groups and communities in India who have remained largely invisible in India's development policies (see SSHAP brief). 12 For example, the pastoral communities who cannot afford to remain inside their houses are therefore more vulnerable to COVID-19. A survey from Gujarat found a lack of awareness about symptoms, preventive measures, diagnosis, treatment, and vaccination within these communities.…”

“…31 Children in India have been largely out of school since March 2020, with a range of negative impacts on mental health, child protection, and increased risk of abuse. 12 Education loss affects rural and migrant children the most who lack access to online facilities and there are also additional risks to girls due to early marriage and/or pregnancy.…”

“…Moreover, there is no external auditing of the fund (see SSHAP brief). 12 Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) funds were diverted to the PM-CARES Funds, which would have otherwise donated to the various Chief Ministers' Relief Funds and local NGOs. PM-CARES ended up with the bulk of corporate donations, given that donations to PM-CARES qualify as CSR, but not donations to CM relief funds.…”