Stability and bifurcation analysis of Japanese encephalitis model with/without effects of some control parameters

Panja, Prabir; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

doi:10.1007/s40314-016-0400-2

Cited by 17 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…For this study, we propose mathematical modelling to assess the importance of direct transmission between pigs in the epidemiology of JE in Cambodia. To our knowledge, few research papers on the mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of JEV have been published [ 18 – 21 ]. Most of these papers performed a mathematical analysis of JEV transmission by determining the basic reproduction number ( R 0 , defined as the expected number of secondary cases produced by a single infection in an entirely susceptible population [ 22 ]), the possible equilibria (disease-free or endemic states) and discussed the stability properties of their model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How much does direct transmission between pigs contribute to Japanese Encephalitis virus circulation? A modelling approach in Cambodia

et al. 2018

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Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is the most important cause of human encephalitis throughout Asia and the Pacific. Although JE is a vector-borne disease, it has been demonstrated experimentally that transmission between pigs can occur through direct contact. Whether pig-to-pig transmission plays a role in the natural epidemiological cycle of JE remains unknown. To assess whether direct transmission between pigs may occur under field conditions, we built two mathematical models of JE transmission incorporating vector-borne transmission alone or a combination of vector-borne and direct transmission. We used Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to estimate the parameters of the models. We fitted the models to (i) two serological datasets collected longitudinally from two pig cohorts (C1 and C2) during two periods of four months on a farm on the outskirts of Phnom-Penh, Cambodia and to (ii) a cross-sectional (CS) serological survey dataset collected from 505 swine coming from eight different provinces of Cambodia. In both cases, the model incorporating both vector-borne and direct transmission better explained the data. We computed the value of the basic reproduction number R0 (2.93 for C1, 2.66 for C2 and 2.27 for CS), as well as the vector-borne reproduction number Rpv and the direct transmission reproduction number Rpp. We then determined the contribution of direct transmission on R0 (11.90% for C1, 11.62% for C2 and 7.51% for CS). According to our results, the existence of pig-to-pig transmission is consistent with our swine serological data. Thus, direct transmission may contribute to the epidemiological cycle of JE in Cambodia. These results need to be confirmed in other eco-climatic settings, in particular in temperate areas where pig-to-pig transmission may facilitate the persistence of JE virus (JEV) during cold seasons when there are no or few mosquitoes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How much does direct transmission between pigs contribute to Japanese Encephalitis virus circulation? A modelling approach in Cambodia

et al. 2018

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“…However, we plotted the trends in cases showing the months in which cases peaked. This may help in further analyzing the data to determine if weather and mosquito patterns play a role and point if monitoring the changes in climate and mosquito density and control, and predicting JE tendency using the mathematical model [31], could be useful.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reduction patterns of Japanese encephalitis incidence following vaccine introduction into long-term expanded program on immunization in Yunnan Province, China

et al. 2019

Infect Dis Poverty

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BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a leading cause of childhood viral encephalitis both at global level and in China. Vaccination is recommended as a key strategy to control JE. In China most JE cases have been reported in southwest provinces, which include Yunnan. In this study, we quantify the epidemiological shift of JE in Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2017, covering before and after the introduction of JE vaccination into routine Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2007.MethodsWe used routinely collected data in the case-based JE surveillance system from 2005 through 2017 in Yunnan. Cases were reported from hospital and county-level Centers for Disease Control in line with the National JE Surveillance Guideline. Epidemiological data were extracted, analysed and presented in appropriate ways. Immunization coverage was estimated from actual JE doses administered and new births for each year.ResultsA total 4780 JE cases (3077 laboratory-confirmed, 1266 clinical and 437 suspected) were reported in the study period. Incidence of JE (per 100 000 population) increased from 0.95 in 2005 to 1.69 in 2007. With increase in vaccination coverage, incidence rates decreased steadily from 1.16 in 2009 to 0.17 in 2017. However, seasonality remained similar across the years, peaking in June–September. Banna (bordering Myanmar and Laos), Dehong (bordering Myanmar), and Zhaotong (an inland prefecture) had the highest incidence rates of 2.3, 1.9, and 1.6, respectively. 97% of all cases were among local residents. As vaccination coverage increased (and incidence decreased), proportion of JE cases among children < 10 years old decreased from 70% in 2005 to 32% in 2017, while that among adults ≥20 years old increased from 12 to 48%. There were a large number of JE cases with unknown treatment outcomes, especially in the earlier years of the surveillance system.ConclusionsThe 13-year JE surveillance data in Yunnan Province showed dramatic decrease of total incidence and a shift from children to adults. Improving vaccination coverage, including access to adults at risk, and strengthening the JE surveillance system is needed to further control or eliminate JE in the province.

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“…The rate of disease transmission from infected pigs to susceptible individuals in mosquito population β 3 The rate of disease transmission from infected mosquitoes to susceptible individuals in pig population γ 1 The rate at which infected pig population get partially recovered and goes to susceptible class µ h…”

Section: A Mathematical Formulation Of Japanese Encephalitis Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The basic reproduction number, which is further specified, is a significant quantity that provides information about the potential spread of Japanese encephalitis. Following that, some manuscripts on the mathematical model of Japanese encephalitis infection were produced, including [3,5,9,10]. Likewise, mathematical frameworks have been generally used to quantify the transmission of different infectious infections, such as, [2,4,7,11,12,14,33,34].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of time delay in the transmission of Japanese encephalitis without vaccination

Baniya

Keval

2021

Proyecciones (Antofagasta)

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In the manuscript, the influence of time delay on the transmission of Japanese encephalitis model without vaccination model has been studied. The time delay is because of the existence of an incubation period during which the JE virus reproduces enough in the mosquitoes with the goal that it tends to be transmitted by the mosquitoes to people. The motivation behind this manuscript is to assess the influence of the time delay it takes to infect susceptible human populations after interacting with infected mosquitoes. The steady-states and the threshold value R0 of the delay model were resolved. This value assists with setting up the circumstance that ensure the asymptotic stability of relating equilibrium points. Utilizing the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we built up the circumstance for the presence of a ”Hopf bifurcation”. Moreover, we infer an express equation to decide the stability and direction of ”Hopf bifurcation” at endemic equilibrium by using center manifold theory and normal structure strategy. It has been seen that delay plays a vital role in stability exchanging. In addition, larger values of virus transmission rate from an infected mosquito to susceptible individuals and the natural mortality of humans of a model affect the existence of ”Hopf bifurcation”. Finally, to understand some analytical outcomes, the delay framework is simulated numerically.

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Stability and bifurcation analysis of Japanese encephalitis model with/without effects of some control parameters

Cited by 17 publications

References 16 publications

How much does direct transmission between pigs contribute to Japanese Encephalitis virus circulation? A modelling approach in Cambodia

How much does direct transmission between pigs contribute to Japanese Encephalitis virus circulation? A modelling approach in Cambodia

Reduction patterns of Japanese encephalitis incidence following vaccine introduction into long-term expanded program on immunization in Yunnan Province, China

The impact of time delay in the transmission of Japanese encephalitis without vaccination

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