Stability and bifurcation analysis on a delayed epidemic model with information-dependent vaccination

Zhu, Linhe; Zhou, Xiao; Li, Yimin; Zhu, Yuxun

doi:10.1088/1402-4896/ab2f04

Cited by 18 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In this paper, the change in social behaviour is described by employing the method of information-dependent models [ 23 , 24 ] which is based on the introduction of a suitable information index (see [ 23 , 24 ]). This method has been applied to vaccine-preventable childhood diseases [ 24 , 25 ] and is increasingly being used (see [ 26 , 27 ] for very recent contributions).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: the case of Italy

Buonomo

Marca

2020

R. Soc. open sci.

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The COVID-19 pandemic that started in China in December 2019 has not only threatened world public health, but severely impacted almost every facet of life, including behavioural and psychological aspects. In this paper, we focus on the ‘human element’ and propose a mathematical model to investigate the effects on the COVID-19 epidemic of social behavioural changes in response to lockdowns. We consider an SEIR-like epidemic model where the contact and quarantine rates depend on the available information and rumours about the disease status in the community. The model is applied to the case of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. We consider the period that stretches between 24 February 2020, when the first bulletin by the Italian Civil Protection was reported and 18 May 2020, when the lockdown restrictions were mostly removed. The role played by the information-related parameters is determined by evaluating how they affect suitable outbreak-severity indicators. We estimate that citizen compliance with mitigation measures played a decisive role in curbing the epidemic curve by preventing a duplication of deaths and about 46% more infections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: the case of Italy

Buonomo

Marca

2020

R. Soc. open sci.

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“…The behavioral change of individuals is introduced by employing the method of information-dependent models [14,15,33] which is based on the introduction of a suitable information index. Such an approach has been applied to general infectious diseases [8,14,15,23,33] as well as specific ones, including childhood diseases like measles, mumps and rubella [14,33] and is currently under development (for very recent papers see [5,22,35]). Therefore, another goal of this manuscript is to provide an application of the information index to a simple model containing relevant features of a coronavirus disease.…”

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confidence: 99%

Effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on coronavirus outbreak: insights from a SIRI model

Buonomo

2020

Ricerche mat

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A mathematical model is proposed to assess the effects of a vaccine on the time evolution of a coronavirus outbreak. The model has the basic structure of SIRI compartments (susceptible-infectious-recovered-infectious) and is implemented by taking into account of the behavioral changes of individuals in response to the available information on the status of the disease in the community. We found that the cumulative incidence may be significantly reduced when the information coverage is high enough and/or the information delay is short, especially when the reinfection rate is high enough to sustain the presence of the disease in the community. This analysis is inspired by the ongoing outbreak of a respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19.

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“…Based on the above discussion, and combining (47) and (48), the characteristic equation 45is equivalent to Consequently, the characteristic equation of the linearized system of (40) at (0, 0, 0) is offered as follows…”

Section: Stability Analysis Of Equilibrium Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…By using mean-field equations, Wang et al [30] established the SIRaRu rumor propagation model in complex networks and analyzed its dynamic characteristics. These studies above provided theoretical support for us to control rumor propagation more effectively [45,46,5,47,48].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A theoretical approach to understanding rumor propagation dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous environment

Zhu¹,

Liu²,

Zhang³

2021

DCDS-B

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Most of the previous work on rumor propagation either focus on ordinary differential equations with temporal dimension or partial differential equations (PDE) with only consideration of spatially independent parameters. Little attention has been given to rumor propagation models in a spatiotemporally heterogeneous environment. This paper is dedicated to investigating a SCIR reaction-diffusion rumor propagation model with a general nonlinear incidence rate in both heterogeneous and homogeneous environments. In spatially heterogeneous case, the well-posedness of global solutions is established first. The basic reproduction number R 0 is introduced, which can be used to reveal the threshold-type dynamics of rumor propagation: if R 0 < 1, the rumor-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, while R 0 > 1, the rumor is uniformly persistent. In spatially homogeneous case, after introducing the time delay, the stability properties have been extensively studied. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the validity of the theoretical analysis and the influence of spatial heterogeneity on rumor propagation is further demonstrated.

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Stability and bifurcation analysis on a delayed epidemic model with information-dependent vaccination

Cited by 18 publications

References 39 publications

Effects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: the case of Italy

Effects of information-induced behavioural changes during the COVID-19 lockdowns: the case of Italy

Effects of information-dependent vaccination behavior on coronavirus outbreak: insights from a SIRI model

A theoretical approach to understanding rumor propagation dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous environment

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