Stability and change in predictors of marital dissolution in the US 1950–2017

Abstract

ObjectiveOur goal is to measure change over time in the predictors of marital dissolution in the United States.BackgroundThe last comprehensive comparative analysis of predictors of marital dissolution is more than 20 years out of date. Rising inequality in the United States requires a fresh look at the predictors of marital dissolution. The Diverging Destinies hypothesis predicts greater inequality over time in the divorce rate between groups, whereas the Converging Destinies hypothesis predicts convergence in divorce rates.MethodWe use a variety of event history models to examine the change over time in race, ethnicity, intermarriage, premarital cohabitation, education, teen marriages, and family of origin intactness as predictors of marital dissolution using data on first marriages from the National Survey of Family Growth covering seven decades of marital histories. We examine racial differences in the nonracial predictors of divorce.ResultsIn the post‐Civil Rights era, Black women's and White women's marital dissolution rates converged. In the most recent marriage cohorts, marital dissolution rates for Black women have increased relative to White women and teen marriage is increasingly associated with divorce. Women without the BA degree appear to be increasingly at risk for divorce. We find that wives from racial minority groups have divorce rates that are less impacted by premarital cohabitation, low education, and teen marriage.ConclusionThe demographic profile of women at marriage has changed dramatically, while the predictors of divorce have changed modestly. Where there are changes in the predictors of divorce, we find more support for Diverging Destinies.

Socioeconomic Status and Intimate Relationships

“…First, the psychological dispositions account proposes that people from lower-income backgrounds may value connection and interdependence more than people from higher-income backgrounds (Kraus et al, 2012), and survey data from people at different levels of SES offer some support for this view (Trail & Karney, 2012). Second, given that marriage rates are lower in poorer communities than in wealthier communities (Rosenfeld & Roesler, 2019), selection into marriage may favor the most stable, committed couples in poorer communities, in contrast to wealthier communities where less committed couples are still likely to get married. Finally, couples who lack resources may remain in unsatisfying relationships because they cannot afford to bear the financial costs of separating (Harknett & Schneider, 2012).…”

“…Despite these considerations, however, intimate relationships among lower-income couples are, as noted earlier, far less stable than among higher-income couples. Whether they are married or cohabiting, more disadvantaged couples are at greater risk of dissolving and when they do dissolve they dissolve sooner, compared to more advantaged couples (Copen et al, 2012;Lundberg et al, 2016;Rosenfeld & Roesler, 2019). Together these trends suggest that, whatever factors there may be that protect relationships at lower levels of SES, they are on average overwhelmed by several other factors that greatly exacerbate their risk.…”

“…In the United States, a country with one of the highest rates of income inequality in the world (Brandolini & Smeeding, 2006; Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2015), the ways that couples form and manage their intimate relationships on either side of this distinction have been diverging steadily over the past several decades. Data from the census and long-running surveys like the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) indicate that women with a college degree are between 12% and 17% more likely to marry than women who did not graduate from college, and that this gap has been widening over time (Lundberg, Pollak, & Stearns, 2016;Rosenfeld & Roesler, 2019). Similar data suggest that college educated women who do marry are up to 40% less likely to divorce than married women who did not complete college (Copen, Daniels, Vespa, & Mosher, 2012;Lundberg et al, 2016), and this gap has also been widening over time (Cohen, 2019).…”

A perceived control‐relationally devaluing experiences model of low socioeconomic status vulnerability to negative relationship outcomes

“…Indeed, individuals with lower as compared to higher SES not only have less time and energy to devote to interactions—such as pursuing shared interests—that promote intimacy, but the demands they face may also create conditions in their relationships that prime the potential for conflict and hostility and which may ultimately undermine relationship satisfaction (e.g., Karney & Neff, 2013; Neff & Karney, 2017). Consistent with this notion, survey data from the United States and various European countries indicates that the relationships of individuals with low SES are at a greater risk of dissolving relative to those with high SES and that these discrepancies have been increasing over the past several decades (e.g., Copen et al., 2012; Esping‐Anderson, 2016; Lundberg et al., 2016; Rosenfeld & Roesler, 2019).…”