Stability and Complexity of a Novel Three‐Dimensional Environmental Quality Dynamic Evolution System

Abstract

In this paper, a novel three-dimensional environmental quality dynamic system is introduced. Bayesian estimation was used to calibrate environmental quality variables, and Genetic algorithm (GA) optimized Levenberg-Marquardt Back Propagation (LM-BP) neural network method was used to effectively identify the system parameters for calibration of various variables and official data. The studies found that the effect of increasing investment in environmental protection on energy intensity and environmental quality is not obvious, and it also aggravates the economic instability. Adjustment of peak parameters of pollution emissions can accelerate the evolution of energy intensity and environmental quality to a stable speed and eventually stabilize with a certain value. But if the peak value of pollution emissions reaches too early, it will pose a certain threat to the environment. Although the speed of ecological environment self-repair is increased, it cannot effectively reduce energy intensity, improve environmental quality, and maintain economic growth; it can control the stability of the control system or effectively control pollution. Therefore, in order to improve the environmental quality, we need to take more measures in parallel, use more means and resources for environmental governance, and ultimately achieve “win-win” between environmental quality and economy.

Complexity Analysis of a Four-Dimensional Energy-Economy-Environment Dynamic System

“…e sensitivity of system (when losing stability) with (x, y, z, w) � (0.015, 0.758, 1.83.1.5), (x 1 , y, z, w) � (0.014, 0.758, 1.83.1.5), and (x 2 , y, z, w) � (0.016, 0.758, 1.83.1.5) and a small change in the initial conditions may cause a large change in the whole four-dimensional system, which indicates that the system is sensitive to the initial state. From Figure 5, we can also know that the initial values vary greatly in the trajectories of the deviated system (1). Although the initial states are indistinguishable, the initial values will be quickly established after several iterations, which is also an important symbol of chaotic motion.…”

“…Model Construct. In the paper, we consider the inclusion of energy reduction constraints on the 3E system proposed by Zhao et al [1] and get a new four-dimensional system, which is more in line with the actual situation and the current development needs. Energy, economy, and environment (3E) system containing energy reduction constraints is given in the following form:…”

“…In this paper, we mainly use the calculation method of energy reduction that is now common in the world to calculate the amount of skill emission reduction [18]. e principal component analysis method based on the covariance matrix is used to calculate the environmental quality index [1] to represent the data of the environmental change. Data on energy consumption and economic growth are mainly derived from China's official statistical yearbook.…”

“…e LM-BP neural network method optimized by genetic algorithm has a good application in the parameter identification of nonlinear systems [1], and it has good identification accuracy, which makes this method widely used in nonidentification of linear system parameters. After system (1) is discretized, the difference equation of the following form is obtained:…”

“…Because the environmental system has the characteristics of nonlinearity, self-organization, nonnegotiability, dynamics, openness, multilevel, self-similarity, and so on, it is a typical complex system, and it is a large system with many elements, levels, and complex relationships. If we want to solve the current environmental problems facing mankind, we must apply complexity theory to environmental problems making the structure of environmental system more reasonable and the balance of environment, economy, and society rebuilt [1]. Fang believes that structural complexity is one of the most fundamental problems of dynamic complexity of ecosystems.…”