Stability and Hopf bifurcation in delayed age-structured SVIR epidemic model with vaccination and incubation

Fabrizio and Caputo suggested an extraordinary definition of fractional derivative, which has been used in many fields. The SIDARTHE infectious disease model with regard to COVID-19 is studied by the new notion in this paper. Making use of the Banach fixed point theorem, the existence and uniqueness of the model’s solution are demonstrated. Then, an efficient method is utilized to deduce the iterative scheme. Finally, some numerical simulations of the model under various fractional orders and parameters are shown. From the computed result, we can see that it not only supports the theoretical demonstration, but also has an intensive insight into the characteristics of the model.

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An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure

Webb,

Zhao

2024

Infectious Disease Reports

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A model of epidemic dynamics is developed that incorporates continuous variables for infection age and vaccination age. The model analyzes pre-symptomatic and symptomatic periods of an infected individual in terms of infection age. This property is shown to be of major importance in the severity of the epidemic, when the infectious period of an infected individual precedes the symptomatic period. The model also analyzes the efficacy of vaccination in terms of vaccination age. The immunity to infection of vaccinated individuals varies with vaccination age and is also of major significance in the severity of the epidemic. Application of the model to the 2003 SARS epidemic in Taiwan and the COVID-19 epidemic in New York provides insights into the dynamics of these diseases. It is shown that the SARS outbreak was effectively contained due to the complete overlap of infectious and symptomatic periods, allowing for the timely isolation of affected individuals. In contrast, the pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 in New York led to a rapid, uncontrolled epidemic. These findings underscore the critical importance of the pre-symptomatic infectious period and the vaccination strategies in influencing the dynamics of an epidemic.

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Stability and Hopf bifurcation in delayed age-structured SVIR epidemic model with vaccination and incubation

Cited by 3 publications

References 28 publications

Dynamics of an age-structured SIS epidemic model with local dispersal and general incidence functions

Dynamics of an age-structured SIS epidemic model with local dispersal and general incidence functions

Dynamical analysis of a novel fractional order SIDARTHE epidemic model of COVID-19 with the Caputo–Fabrizio(CF) derivative

An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure

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