Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience

Fischer, Stanley; Gramont, Carlos A. Végh; Sahay, Ratna

doi:10.5089/9781451980042.001

Cited by 89 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…It also reduces the risk that 'reform fatigue' will stall the reform process and create opportunities for anti-social rentseeking by a privileged élite. Research by Åslund et al (1996), Fischer et al (1996), Havrylyshyn et al (1998) and Berg et al (1999) supports the advantageousness of early and rapid reform.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Natural resources and ‘gradual’ reform in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan

Auty¹

2003

Natural Resources Forum

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Among low-income transition reformers, natural resource rents are an important initial condition that helps explain choice of reform strategy. Resource-rich Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and resource-poor China and Vietnam all claim to pursue gradual reform, but their strategies differ. In China and Vietnam, low resource rents have nurtured developmental political conditions and encouraged efficient resource use, which initially promoted agriculture as a dynamic market sector, capable of absorbing labour from the lagging state sector. In contrast, the scale and ease of natural resource rent extraction in the Central Asian countries has consolidated authoritarian governments that postpone reform. Despite high energy rents, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan still extract agricultural rents in ways that repress farm incentives, perpetuate environmental degradation and liquidate irrigation assets. Uzbekistan uses its rents to subsidize a manufacturing sector, that is neither dynamic nor competitive. As its dynamic sector, Turkmenistan promotes natural gas exports that depend on volatile markets. Resource-driven development models suggest that reform is required in both countries to avert a growth collapse. Turkmenistan's large energy rent-stream may postpone a collapse for some years, but Uzbekistan's position is already precarious: it has run down its rural infrastructure and accumulated sizeable foreign debts and will require external assistance to recover from a growth collapse. Such assistance should be made conditional on accelerated economic and political reform.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Natural resources and ‘gradual’ reform in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan

Auty¹

2003

Natural Resources Forum

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“…For example, in 1986, Peru implemented a program that eliminated hyperinflation, not ERBS. Another study that reexamined the stylized facts using panel data sets is that of Fischer et al (1996). Based on a 26-country sample, they found evidence in favor of expansionary stabilizations for the transition economies, although the growth was more pronounced in the case of ERBSs.…”

Section: Empirical Studies Of Erbsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exchange Rate‐based Stabilizations: A Literature Review

Aytaç

2016

Journal of Economic Surveys

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The exchange rate‐based stabilizations (ERBSs) that have been undertaken in chronic inflation countries have generated a controversial body of literature regarding the effects of disinflation programs, especially those on real consumption and output. This survey provides an extensive overview of the literature on ERBS. The paper covers various empirical studies that have attempted to document the macroeconomic regularities associated with ERBS, discussing both their strengths and their weaknesses. It analyzes diverse theoretical models that have been put forward to replicate the business cycles associated with ERBS, and sheds light on which models perform better using real data. The results suggest that durables incorporated weak credibility and sticky price model proves to be most compatible with the empirical regularities observed in the course of ERBS.

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“…All of the Central Asian countries suffered a sharp drop in real output during the first half of the 1990s, and the impact of this on living standards was exacerbated by the cessation of intra-USSR transfers and increased economic inequality. The initial decline in output is difficult to measure because of the problems of valuing Soviet-era output, for which there was no demand after the end of central planning, and because of quality changes and new products (Fischer, Sahay and Vegh 1996). Revaluation of energy products provided a boost to estimated GDP in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which partly offset the decline in quantities.…”

Section: Economic Performance Since Independencementioning

confidence: 99%