Stage and age structured Aedes vexans and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) climate-dependent matrix population model

Lončarić, Ž.; Kutuzović, Branimir Hackenberger

doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2012.08.002

Cited by 19 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Because of this, we fitted the model to the 2014 and 2015 BI data by the least squares method. Because low temperatures and short photo periods can lead to diapause of the mosquito, we assume that the immatures remain in that stage and the adults die from December to February (Loncarić et al, 2013). So, our simulations begin from March in 2014 and with initial values (2, 0, 0).…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations

Wang

Tang

Cheke

2016

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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An outbreak of dengue fever in Guangdong province in 2014 was the most serious outbreak ever recorded in China. Given the known positive correlation between the abundance of mosquitoes and the number of dengue fever cases, a stage structured mosquito model was developed to investigate the cause of the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 and its implications for outbreaks of the disease.Data on the Breteau index (number of containers positive for larvae per 100 premises investigated), temperature and precipitation were used for model fitting.The egg laying rate, the development rate and the mortality rates of immatures and adults were obtained from the estimated parameters. Moreover, effects of daily fluctuations of temperature on these parameters were obtained and the effects of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by simulations. Our results indicated that the abundance of mosquitoes depended not only on the total annual precipitation but also on the distribution of the precipitation. The daily mean temperature had a nonlinear relationship with the abundance of mosquitoes, and large diurnal temperature differences can reduce the abundance of mosquitoes. In addition, effects of increasing precipitation and temperature were interdependent .Our findings suggest that the large abundance of mosquitoes in 2014 was mainly caused by the distribution of the precipitation. In the perspective of mosquito * Corresponding author. Tel: +86 29 85310232Email addresses: xiawang@snnu.edu.cn (Xia Wang), sytang@snnu.edu.cn, sanyitang219@hotmail.com (Sanyi Tang) Preprint submitted to Journal of Theoretical BiologySeptember 26, 2016 control, our results reveal that it is better to clear water early and spray insecticide between April and August in case of limited resources.

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Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations

Wang

Tang

Cheke

2016

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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“…Although organisms respond to many intrinsic and extrinsic demands simultaneously, activity, abundance and distribution can readily be modelled by explicitly considering the influence of temperature, water balance and nutritional availability on physiological state, survival and/or reproduction (Andrewartha & Birch ). Several approaches are available for doing so, such as biophysical models, matrix population models and integral projection models (Kearney & Porter ; Lončarić & Hackenberger ; Rees, Childs & Ellner ).…”

Section: Biophysical Approaches To Impacts and Responsesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal physiology and urbanization: perspectives on exit, entry and transformation rules

Chown

Duffy

2015

Functional Ecology

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Summary1. More than 50% of the global human population lives in urban settings, which, for urban agglomerations with >1 million inhabitants, span a 30°C range in mean annual temperature and 4000 mm annual precipitation range. 2. Although the biodiversity impacts of urbanization are most commonly investigated at the assemblage level, these impacts are mediated through organismal physiology and behaviour. 3. At the individual level, mechanistic models, which provide an explicit means to understand how organisms meet the requirements of heat, water and nutrient balance, offer a useful way to assess physiological and behavioural responses to urban environments and their consequences for population dynamics. 4. Physiological determinants of assemblage variation can usefully be investigated by examining entry, exit and transformation rules. These are biases in the processes that determine which individuals join or leave a population or assemblage, and processes that act on individuals, which remain part thereof. 5. Direct evidence for physiological adaptation (broadly construed as phenotypic plasticity, genotypic change or some interaction between them) to urban environments is remarkably limited, owing largely to low numbers of investigations, given that most studies that have been conducted reveal some form of adaptation. 6. A warming tolerance approach, applied to insects globally, demonstrates that transposing sampled populations to the nearest urban area reduces warming tolerance by several degrees, though this effect is on average more marked for the Southern than the Northern Hemisphere. The lowest warming tolerance is found between 30 and 35°N or S, suggesting that in the absence of mitigation, the urban heat island effect of cities here will have the most pronounced impacts on insect populations. 7. Physiological approaches offer a useful means for understanding the urban-rural gradient across a wide range of climatically variable settings during a period of background environmental change.

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“…Relatively poor performance of the likelihood model when E ( T J ) is short is a valid concern, because none of the parametric distributions considered in this study is unrealistic. Although this study combined all sexually immature stages (e.g., egg and larva stages) into one stage, stage‐structured models may consider these stages explicitly (e.g., Bommarco, ; Lončarić & Hackenberger, ), making the duration of each stage short. Even when there are no distinct life stages such as larval and pupal stages, size‐dependent mortality is commonly reported (e.g., Grutter et al., ; Remmel & Tammaru, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…into one stage, stage-structured models may consider these stages explicitly (e.g., Bommarco, 2001;Lončarić & Hackenberger, 2013), making the duration of each stage short. Even when there are no distinct life stages such as larval and pupal stages, size-dependent mortality is commonly reported (e.g., Grutter et al, 2017;Remmel & Tammaru, 2009).…”

Section: Relatively Poor Performance Of the Likelihood Model When E(tmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stage duration distributions in matrix population models

Okuyama

2018

Ecology and Evolution

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Matrix population models are a standard tool for studying stage‐structured populations, but they are not flexible in describing stage duration distributions. This study describes a method for modeling various such distributions in matrix models. The method uses a mixture of two negative binomial distributions (parametrized using a maximum likelihood method) to approximate a target (true) distribution. To examine the performance of the method, populations consisting of two life stages (juvenile and adult) were considered. The juvenile duration distribution followed a gamma distribution, lognormal distribution, or zero‐truncated (over‐dispersed) Poisson distribution, each of which represents a target distribution to be approximated by a mixture distribution. The true population growth rate based on a target distribution was obtained using an individual‐based model, and the extent to which matrix models can approximate the target dynamics was examined. The results show that the method generally works well for the examined target distributions, but is prone to biased predictions under some conditions. In addition, the method works uniformly better than an existing method whose performance was also examined for comparison. Other details regarding parameter estimation and model development are also discussed.

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Stage and age structured Aedes vexans and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) climate-dependent matrix population model

Cited by 19 publications

References 54 publications

A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations

A stage structured mosquito model incorporating effects of precipitation and daily temperature fluctuations

Thermal physiology and urbanization: perspectives on exit, entry and transformation rules

Stage duration distributions in matrix population models

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