Staged Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Water Supply in Amman, Jordan

Ray, Patrick A.; Kirshen, Paul; Watkins, David

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000172

Cited by 42 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In comparing recommendations of various published studies with actual decisions (as represented by commissioned projects), we find that optimal solutions—determined by sophisticated optimization techniques—may not be realized. For instance, in one case the recommendation of a recent study was to delay the Disi Pipeline [Ray, ], in reality the pipeline has been commissioned. This indicates a difference in local decision priorities that actually shape outcome versus a theoretical set of objectives.…”

Section: Application: Assessing Future Water Availability In Jordanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Formulating Expectations for Future Water Availability through Infrastructure Development Decisions in Arid Regions

Siddiqi

Ereiqat

Anadón

2016

Systems Engineering

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Water resources development options are usually selected on a least‐cost basis. While economic considerations are dominant in choosing projects, there are also a mix of other factors including social demands, political viability, social equity, and environmental considerations that impact final decisions and development of water supply systems. Understanding local priorities in water resource management decisions can allow for forming expectations of future regional water availability through new infrastructure projects. In this research, we propose that future human mediated water availability in arid regions may be assessed by considering key projects that have been identified or proposed by regional experts and organizations. Using Multicriteria Decision Methods as a framework to organize a set of decision criteria and their relative salience, the likelihood of selection (and development) of a project can be determined and used to form expectations of future regional water availability. We apply this approach in a case study of Jordan, and find that large‐scale desalination projects—that have been in the planning books for decades—are now most likely to be pursued and implemented in the country. Finally, we discuss strengths, limitations, and the general applicability of this method for assessing future water availability in other arid regions.

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Section: Application: Assessing Future Water Availability In Jordanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Formulating Expectations for Future Water Availability through Infrastructure Development Decisions in Arid Regions

Siddiqi

Ereiqat

Anadón

2016

Systems Engineering

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“…These include decision trees, lattices, and Monte Carlo analysis (Chow & Regan, ; De Neufville & Scholtes, ; Lander & Pinches, ; Trigeorgis, ) as well as multistage stochastic optimization programs (De Weck et al, ; Wang & De Neufville, , ; Zhao et al, ). Combinations of staged decision making (Beh et al, ; Cai et al, ; Hobbs, ; Kang & Lansey, ; Kracman et al, ; P. Ray et al, ; Vieira & Cunha, ) and ROA (Jeuland & Whittington, ; Steinschneider & Brown, ; Woodward et al, ) can be found in the water and flood management literature. The number of decision stages in these multistage problems defines the frequency that intervention strategies can be modified in the planning horizon.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real‐Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty

Erfani

Pachos

Harou

2018

Water Resources Research

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Planning water supply infrastructure includes identifying interventions that cost‐effectively secure an acceptably reliable water supply. Climate change is a source of uncertainty for water supply developments as its impact on source yields is uncertain. Adaptability to changing future conditions is increasingly viewed as a valuable design principle of strategic water planning. Because present decisions impact a system's ability to adapt to future needs, flexibility in activating, delaying, and replacing engineering projects should be considered in least‐cost water supply intervention scheduling. This is a principle of Real Options Analysis, which this paper applies to least‐cost capacity expansion scheduling via multistage stochastic mathematical programming. We apply the proposed model to a real‐world utility with many investment decision stages using a generalized scenario tree construction algorithm to efficiently approximate the probabilistic uncertainty. To evaluate the implementation of Real Options Analysis, the use of two metrics is proposed: the value of the stochastic solution and the expected value of perfect information that quantify the value of adopting adaptive and flexible plans, respectively. An application to London's water system demonstrates the generalized approach. The investment decisions results are a mixture of long‐term and contingency schemes that are optimally chosen considering different futures. The value of the stochastic solution shows that by considering uncertainty, adaptive investment decisions avoid £100 million net present value (NPV) cost, 15% of the total NPV. The expected value of perfect information demonstrates that optimal delay and early decisions have £50 million NPV, 6% of total NPV. Sensitivity of results to the characteristics of the scenario tree and uncertainty set is assessed.

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“…Kang and Lansey, 2013;Korteling et al, 2013;Lempert and Groves, 2010;Maier et al, 2013;Matrosov et al, 2013a;Matrosov et al, 2013b;Paton et al, 2014a;Sahin et al, 2014), only some studies have considered the use of formal optimisation approaches (e.g. Kasprzyk et al, 2013;Kasprzyk et al, 2012;Kasprzyk et al, 2009;Paton et al, 2014b;Wang and Huang, 2014;Zeff et al, 2014) and only Ray et al (2012) have considered the optimal sequencing of water supply augmentation options.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, all of these approaches are tailored to specific application areas. In addition, the methods proposed by Housh et al (2013) and Ray et al (2012) are based on traditional optimisation methods (i.e. stochastic and linear programming, respectively, in this case), which have a number of potential disadvantages compared with evolutionary optimisation approaches (see Maier et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the approaches of Woodward et al (2014) and Basupi and Kapelan (2013) were tailored to specific application areas. Housh et al (2013), Kang and Lansey (2014) and Ray et al (2012) developed optimal sequencing approaches for water supply system management, water supply infrastructure and water sources, respectively, that consider performance under a wide range of future conditions with the aid of scenarios. However, all of these approaches are tailored to specific application areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenario driven optimal sequencing under deep uncertainty

Beh

Maier

Dandy

2015

Environmental Modelling & Software

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After the embargo period  via non-commercial hosting platforms such as their institutional repository  via commercial sites with which Elsevier has an agreement In all cases accepted manuscripts should: link to the formal publication via its DOI  bear a CC-BY-NC-ND license -this is easy to do, click here to find out how  if aggregated with other manuscripts, for example in a repository or other site, be shared in alignment with our hosting policy  not be added to or enhanced in any way to appear more like, or to substitute for, the published journal article AbstractThe optimal sequencing / scheduling of activities is vital in many areas of environmental and water resources planning and management. In order to account for deep uncertainty surrounding future conditions, a new optimal scheduling approach is introduced in this paper, which consists of three stages. Firstly, a portfolio of diverse sequences that are optimal under a range of plausible future conditions is generated. Next, global sensitivity analysis is used to assess the robustness of these sequences and to determine the relative contribution of future uncertain variables to this robustness. Finally, an optimal sequence is selected for implementation. The approach is applied to the optimal sequencing of additional potential water supply sources, such as desalinated-, stormand rain-water, for the southern Adelaide water supply system, over a 40 year planning horizon at 10-year intervals. The results indicate that the proposed approach is useful in identifying optimal sequences under deep uncertainty.

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Staged Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Water Supply in Amman, Jordan

Cited by 42 publications

References 26 publications

Formulating Expectations for Future Water Availability through Infrastructure Development Decisions in Arid Regions

Formulating Expectations for Future Water Availability through Infrastructure Development Decisions in Arid Regions

Real‐Options Water Supply Planning: Multistage Scenario Trees for Adaptive and Flexible Capacity Expansion Under Probabilistic Climate Change Uncertainty

Scenario driven optimal sequencing under deep uncertainty

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