State and prospects of fuel supply for agriculture in Ukraine

Abstract

In the context of martial law in Ukraine, when the oil refining industry has stopped and most of the logistics chains have been destroyed, the issue of ensuring the availability of fuel and energy resources for agricultural production – the guarantor of food supply in Ukraine and the world – is of particular relevance. The purpose of the article was to study the consumption of petroleum products in the agricultural sector of Ukraine under martial law, to investigate the state and state regulation of the market and fuel from petroleum products, and to forecast their price in the future. The following methods were used in the article: dialectical, abstract and logical, statistical, correlation and regression, tabular and graphical, analysis of series of dynamics and structural changes, comparison, strategic planning and forecasting. Based on the results of the research carried out using statistical methods, the article analyses the consumption of petrol and diesel fuel by agricultural enterprises and calculates their cost per hectare of harvested area. It was found that the decrease in fuel consumption in 2022 was due to the fact that ¼ of the sown areas were not sown due to the war. The share of fuel used for the needs of the agricultural sector was also investigated. The correlation and regression analysis revealed a close relationship between the exchange rate and the price of diesel fuel in Ukraine, and a negative relationship between the world oil price and the price of diesel fuel. Due to the established dependence, a model for calculating the price of diesel fuel based on world oil prices and the exchange rate is developed, and the price is calculated. It is substantiated that the main economic method of state regulation of the fuel market is the establishment of an excise tax. It is concluded that the reduction in the consumption of fuel and energy resources in the agricultural sector of Ukraine has led to a decrease in the energy intensity of agricultural products. The results of the research are of practical importance, which will allow identifying destabilizing factors in the oil and oil products market, as well as formulating the State’s policy that will promote the use of energy resources, in particular liquid fuel, in agriculture under martial law