State of the Climate in 2016

Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P.; Ackerman, Steven A.; Adams, Nicolaus G.; Adler, Robert F.; Albanil, Adelina; Alfaro, Eric J.; Allan, Richard P.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Amador, Jorge A.; Andreassen, Liss M.; Arendt, A. A.; Arévalo, Juan; Arndt, Derek S.; Arzhanova, N. M.; Aschan, Michaela; Azorín-Molina, César; Banzon, Viva F.; Bardin, M. Yu.; Barichivich, Jonathan; Baringer, Molly O.; Barreira, Sandra; Baxter, Stephen; Bazo, Juan; Becker, Andreas; Bedka, Kristopher M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Bell, Gerald D.; Belmont, M.R.; Benedetti, Angela; Bernhard, Germar; Berrisford, Paul; Berry, David I.; Bettolli, María Laura; Bhatt, Uma S.; Bidegain, Mario; Bill, Brian D.; Billheimer, S.; Bissolli, Peter; Blake, Eric S.; Blunden, Jessica; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Boucher, Oliviér; Boudet, Dagne; Box, Jason E.; Boyer, Tim; Braathen, Geir; Bromwich, David H.; Brown, Richard J.; Bulygina, Olga; Burgess, David; Calderón, Blanca; Camargo, Suzana J.; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Cappelen, John; Carrasco, Gualberto; Carter, Brendan R.; Chambers, D. P.; Chandler, E. F.; Christiansen, Hanne H.; Christy, John R.; Chung, Daniel; Chung, Eui‐Seok; Cinque, Kathy; Clem, Kyle R.; Coelho, Caio A. S.; Cogley, J. Graham; Coldewey‐Egbers, Melanie; Colwell, Steve; Cooper, O. R.; Copland, Luke; Cosca, Catherine E; Cross, Jessica N.; Crotwell, Molly; Crouch, Jake; Davis, Sean; Eyto, Elvira de; Jeu, R. A. M. de; Laat, Jos de; DeGasperi, Curtis L.; Degenstein, D. A.; Demircan, Mesut; Derksen, Chris; Destin, Dale; Girolamo, Larry Di; Giuseppe, Francesca Di; Diamond, Howard J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Dohan, Kathleen; Dokulil, Martin T.; Dolgov, Andrey V.; Dolman, A. J.; Domingues, Catia M.; Donat, Markus G.; Dong, Shenfu; Dorigo, Wouter; Dortch, Quay; Doucette, Greg; Drozdov, Dmitry; Ducklow, Hugh W.; Dunn, Robert; Durán‐Quesada, Ana María; Dutton, G. S.; Ebrahim, A.; ElKharrim, M.; Elkins, James W.; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Etienne-Leblanc, Sheryl; Evans, Thomas E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Farrell, S. L.; Fateh, Serdouk; Fausto, Robert S.; Fedaeff, Nava; Feely, Richard A.; Feng, Zixian; Fenimore, Chris; Fettweis, Xavier; Fioletov, Vitali; Flemming, Johannes; Fogarty, Chris; Fogt, Ryan L.; Folland, Chris K.; Fonseca, Cláudia; Fossheim, Maria; Foster, Michael J.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Francis, Shannon; Franz, Bryan A.; Frey, R.; Frith, S. M.; Froidevaux, L.; Ganter, Catherine; Garzoli, Silvia L.; Gerland, S.; Gobron, Nadine; Goldenberg, Stanley B.; Gomez, R.; Goñi, Gustavo; Goto, Atsushi; Grooß, J. U.; Gruber, A.; Guard, Charles “Chip” P.; Gugliemin, Mauro; Gupta, S. K.; Gutiérrez, José Manuel; Hagos, Samson; Hahn, Sebastian; Haimberger, Leo; Hakkarainen, Janne; Hall, B. D.; Halpert, Michael S.; Hamlington, B. D.; Hanna, Edward; Hansen, Keld Q.; Hanssen-Bauer, Inger; Harris, Ian; Heidinger, A. K.; Heikkilä, Anu; Heil, Angelika; Heim, Richard R.; Hendricks, Stefan; Hernández, Marieta; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Hilburn, Kyle; Ho, Shu‐Peng; Holmes, Robert M.; Hu, Zeng Zhen; Huang, Boyin; Huelsing, Hannah K.; Huffman, George J.; Hughes, Chris W.; Hurst, D. F.; Ialongo, Iolanda; Ijampy, J. A.; Ingvaldsen, Randi; Inness, Antje; Isaksen, K.; Ishii, Masayoshi; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jiménez, Carlos; Jin, Xiangze; Johannesen, Edda; John, Viju O.; Johnsen, Bjørn; Johnson, Bryan; Johnson, Gregory C.; Jones, Phil; Joseph, Annie C.; Jumaux, Guillaume; Kabidi, Khadija; Kaiser, J. W.; Kato, Seiji; Kazemi, A.; Keller, Linda M.; Kendon, Mike; Kennedy, John J.; Kerr, Kenneth; Kholodov, A. L.; Khoshkam, Mahbobeh; Killick, Rachel; Kim, Hyungjun; Kim, S. J.; Kimberlain, Todd B.; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Knaff, John A.; Kobayashi, Shinya; Kohler, Jack; Korhonen, Johanna; Korshunova, Natalia N.; Kovacs, K.; Kramarova, N. A.; Kratz, David P.; Kruger, Andries; Kruk, Michael C.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Kumar, Arun; Lakatos, Mónika; Lakkala, Kaisa; Lander, Mark A.; Landsea, Chris; Lankhorst, Matthias; Lantz, Kathleen; Lazzara, Matthew A.; Lemons, P.; Leuliette, E. W.; L’Heureux, Michelle; Lieser, Jan L.; Lin, I‐I; Liu, Hongxing; Liu, Yinghui; Locarnini, R. A.; Loeb, Norman G.; Monaco, Claire Lo; Long, Craig S.; Álvarez, Luis Alfonso López; Lorrey, Andrew; Loyola, Diego; Lumpkin, Rick; Luo, Jie; Luojus, Kari; Lydersen, Christian; Lyman, John M.; Maberly, Stephen C.; Maddux, B. C.; Ramos, Andrea M.; Малкова, Г. В.; Manney, G. L.; Marcellin, Vernie; Marchenko, S. S.; Marengo, José A.; Marra, John J.; Marszelewski, Włodzimierz; Martens, Brecht; Martínez-Güingla, Rodney; Massom, Robert A.; Mata, Maurício M.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; May, Linda; Mayer, Michael; Mazloff, Matthew R.; McBride, Charlotte; McCabe, Matthew F.; McCarthy, Mark; McClelland, J. W.; McGree, Simon; McVicar, Tim R.; Mears, C. A.; Meier, Walter N.; Meinen, Christopher S.; Mekonnen, Ademe; Ménendez, Melisa; Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu; Menzel, W. Paul; Merchant, Christopher J.; Meredith, Michael P.; Merrifield, M. A.; Metzl, Nicolas; Minnis, Patrick; Miralles, Diego G.; Mistelbauer, Thomas; Mitchum, Gary T.; Monselesan, Didier; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Montzka, S. A.; Morice, Colin; Mote, Thomas L.; Mudryk, Lawrence; Mühle, Jens; Mullan, A. Brett; Nash, Eric R.; Garabato, Alberto C. Naveira; Nerem, R. S.; Newman, Louise; Nieto, Juan J.; Noetzli, Jeannette; O’Neel, S.; Overland, James E.; Oyunjargal, Lamjav; Parinussa, Robert; Park, E. Hyung; Parker, D. E.; Parrington, Mark; Parsons, A. R.; Pasch, Richard J.; Pascual-Ramírez, Reynaldo; Paterson, Andrew M.; Paulik, Christoph; Pearce, Petra R.; Pelto, Mauri; Liang, Peng; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Perovich, D. K.; Petropavlovskikh, Irina; Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes; Phillips, David W.; Pinty, B.; Pitts, Mıchael; Pons, Marc; Porter, Avalon O.; Primicerio, Raul; Proshutinsky, A.; Quegan, Sean; Quintana, Juan; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Rajeevan, M.; Randriamarolaza, Luc Yannick Andréas; Razuvaev, V. N.; Reagan, James R.; Reid, Phillip; Reimer, Christoph; Rémy, Samuel; Renwick, James; Revadekar, J. V.; Richter-Menge, J.; Riffler, Michael; Rimmer, Alon; Rintoul, Steve; Robinson, David A.; Rodell, Matthew; Solís, José L. Rodríguez; Romanovsky, V. E.; Ronchail, Josyane; Rosenlof, Karen H.; Roth, Chris; Rusak, James A.; Sabine, Christopher L.; Sallée, Jean Bapiste; Sánchez-Lugo, Ahira; Santee, M. L.; Sawaengphokhai, P.; Sayouri, Amal; Scambos, Ted; Schemm, Jae E.; Schladow, S. Geoffrey; Schmid, Claudia; Schmid, Martin; Schmidtko, Sunke; Schreck, Carl J.; Selkirk, Henry B.; Send, Uwe; Şensoy, Serhat; Setzer, Alberto; Sharp, Martin; Shaw, Adrian; Shi, Lei; Shiklomanov, A. I.; Shiklomanov, N. I.; Siegel, David A.; Signorini, Sérgio R.; Sima, Fatou; Simmons, A. J.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.; Smith, Sharon L.; Spence, Jaqueline M.; Srivastava, Arvind K.; Stackhouse, Paul W.; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Steinbrecht, Wolfgang; Stella, José Luis; Stengel, Martin; Stennett-Brown, Roxann; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Strahan, S. E.; Streletskiy, D. A.; Sun‐Mack, Sunny; Swart, Sebastiaan; Sweet, William; Talley, Lynne D.; Tamar, Gerard; Tank, Suzanne E.; Taylor, Michael A.; Tedesco, M.; Teubner, Katrin; Thoman, Richard; Thompson, P. R.; Thomson, Laura; Timmermans, M. L.; Тимофеев, М. А.; Tirnanes, Joaquin A.; Tobin, Skie; Trachte, Katja; Trainer, Vera L.; Tretiakov, M.; Trewin, Blair; Trotman, Adrian; Tschudi, M. A.; As, Dirk van; Wal, R. S. W. van de; der, J A Ronald van; Schalie, Robin van der; Schrier, Gerard van der; Werf, Guido R. van der; Meerbeeck, Cédric J. Van; Velicogna, I.; Verburg, Piet; Vigneswaran, Bala; Vincent, Lucie A.; Volkov, D.; Vose, Russell S.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wåhlin, Anna; Wahr, John; Walsh, John E.; Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Junhong; Wang, Lei; Wang, M.; Wang, Sheng-Hung; Wanninkhof, Rik; Watanabe, Shohei; Weber, Mark; Weller, Robert A.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Whitewood, Robert; Wijffels, Susan E.; Wilber, Anne C.; Wild, Jeanette D.; Willett, Kate M.; Williams, Michael; Willie, Shem; Wolken, G. J.; Wong, Takmeng; Wood, Eric F.; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Wouters, Bert; Xue, Yan; Yamada, Ryūji; Yim, So Young; Yin, Xungang; Young, Steven H.; Yu, Lisan; Zahid, H. Jabran; Zambrano, Eduardo; Zhang, Peiqun; Zhao, Guanguo; Lin, Zhou; Ziemke, J. R.; Love-Brotak, S. Elizabeth; Gilbert, Kristin; Maycock, Tom; Osborn, Timothy J.; Sprain, Mara; Veasey, Sara W.; Ambrose, Barbara J.; Griffin, Jessicca; Misch, Deborah J.; Riddle, Deborah B.; Young, T.

doi:10.1175/2017bamsstateoftheclimate.1

Cited by 154 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 434 publications

(601 reference statements)

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“…(This figure was obtained using the same data used to construct Fig. 2.16 in Mears et al, 2017). Figure 11 shows close agreement between RSS MW and COSMIC.…”

Section: -65mentioning

confidence: 71%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Liang

Mears

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer -COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade −1 , with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade −1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60 • N and 40-65 • S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade −1 . In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

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“…(This figure was obtained using the same data used to construct Fig. 2.16 in Mears et al, 2017). Figure 11 shows close agreement between RSS MW and COSMIC.…”

Section: -65mentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Mears et al (2017) computed global average (60 • S to 60 • N) TPW using a number of data sets from 1979 to 2014. Figure 11 shows the data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (Dee et al, 2011), RSS MW, and COSMIC.…”

Section: -65mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Liang

Mears

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…The first of these was a 2-hourly, long-term (1995-2015) PW dataset (Wang et al, 2007;Mears et al, 2015Mears et al, , 2017. The PW in this dataset is derived using 5 min International Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Service (IGS) zenith total delay (ZTD) data.…”

Section: Precipitable Water Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitable water characteristics during the 2013 Colorado flood using ground-based GPS measurements

Huelsing¹,

Wang²,

Mears³

et al. 2017

Atmos. Meas. Tech.

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Abstract. During 9-16 September 2013, the Front Range region of Colorado experienced heavy rainfall that resulted in severe flooding. Precipitation totals for the event exceeded 450 mm, damages to public and private properties were estimated to be over USD 2 billion, and nine lives were lost. This study analyzes the characteristics of precipitable water (PW) surrounding the event using 10 years of high-resolution GPS PW data in Boulder, Colorado, which was located within the region of maximum rainfall. PW in Boulder is dominated by seasonal variability with an average summertime maximum of 36 mm. In 2013, the seasonal PW maximum extended into early September and the September monthly mean PW exceeded the 99th percentile of climatology with a value 25 % higher than the 40-year climatology. Prior to the flood, around 18:00 UTC on 8 September, PW rapidly increased from 22 to 32 mm and remained around 30 mm for the entire event as a result of the nearly saturated atmosphere. The frequency distribution of September PW for Boulder is typically normal, but in 2013 the distribution was bimodal due to a combination of above-average PW values from 1 to 15 September and much drier conditions from 16 to 30 September. The above-normal, near-saturation PW values during the flood were the result of large-scale moisture transport into Colorado from the Tropical Eastern Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture transport was the product of a stagnating cutoff low over the southwestern United States working in conjunction with an anticyclone located over the southeastern United States. A blocking ridge located over the Canadian Rocky Mountains kept both of the synoptic features in place over the course of several days, which helped to provide continuous moisture to the storm, thus enhancing the accumulated precipitation totals.

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“…This hypothesis that wine is being produced in areas not picked up by the CORINE dataset is also supported by the newly reinforced warming trend in global temperatures, with 2016 global surface temperature now being highest on record. In fact, record warmth has been recorded for a third consecutive year, with the 2016 annual global surface temperature surpassing the previous record of 2015 (Blunden and Arndt 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 86%

The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

et al. 2017

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Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support the growth of wine grapes. In this paper, we explore to what extent Scotland might become suitable for wine production under HECC using a climate analogue approach. Specifically, we address the following questions. What are the projected late twenty-first century temperature changes in Scotland? Where in Europe are current climates (based on summer and annual temperatures) similar to those projected for Scotland by the end of the twenty-first century under HECC? Are any of these locations currently wine grape growing regions? The temperature analogues towards the end of the twenty-first century occurred at more southerly latitudes in Europe, with some variability from west to east arising from the influence of continental climates. Temperature analogues alone match with several current wine grape growing regions of Europe, suggesting that future climates in Scotland could support wine production. However, when precipitation and/or lithology and topography are also taken into account, no matches were found with existing European wine grape growing regions. This study demonstrates how the use of climate analogues in combination with other environmental datasets can be useful in understanding future climate change impacts, especially under HECC.

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State of the Climate in 2016

Abstract: Editor’s note: For easy download the posted pdf of the State of the Climate for 2017 is a low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Please be patient as it may take a few minutes for the high-resolution file to download.

Cited by 154 publications

References 434 publications

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

Precipitable water characteristics during the 2013 Colorado flood using ground-based GPS measurements

The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

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