State of the <scp>UK</scp> Climate 2019

Kendon, Mike; McCarthy, Mark; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Matthews, Andrew; Sparks, Tim H.; Garforth, Judith

doi:10.1002/joc.6726

Cited by 39 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…For the US, the State of Massachusetts was selected as a study area due to general precipitation, temperature, and land use similarities to the UK, as well as the availability of data. The UK has a mean annual temperature of 8.9°C and annual precipitation of 1147 mm, whereas Massachusetts has a mean annual temperature of 10.3°C and annual precipitation of 1016 mm, and the Ontario gauges relied upon have a mean annual temperature of 6.3°C and annual precipitation of 972 mm (OFAT, 2020; Kendon et al, 2020; U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2020).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic prediction model for time‐to‐peak

Langridge

McBean

Bonakdari

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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A simplified empirical equation is developed for widespread prediction of dynamic catchment response time. This model allows for time-to-peak prediction to evolve from static, lumped models, thereby providing a single value for any storm within a given catchment, using a single set of input parameters, that can be applied to a dynamic model, thus accounting for the variability between storm sizes and catchment moisture conditions. These dynamic prediction methods are translated to North America for the first time. This allows the concepts and prediction methods for catchment response time prediction previously established for the United Kingdom (UK), to be translated to a simple empirical equation for use in North America, through the use of selected study areas in Canada and the United States. This reconfigured model is statistically successful in both the UK and North America and allows for a straightforward implementation of dynamic time-to-peak prediction. Further, the reconfigured model introduces the use of a runoff coefficient (R c) to encompass historical catchment wetness, increasing the ease of incorporating antecedent moisture condition into predictions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic prediction model for time‐to‐peak

Langridge

McBean

Bonakdari

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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“…Forecast temperatures tend to be too cold during daytime and too warm overnight relative to the observations. The first case study from 00 UTC July 21 to 00 UTC July 26, 2019, occurred during a record-breaking summer heat wave over the UK (Christidis et al, 2020;Kendon et al, 2020a). Temperatures were > 35 C across south and eastern England on 25 July, and were > 30 C widely elsewhere in the southern UK.…”

Section: Case Study Periodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of time‐varying sea surface temperature on UK regional atmosphere forecasts

Mahmood

Lewis

Castillo

et al. 2021

Meteorological Applications

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A new approach to improve the ocean surface boundary condition used in regional numerical weather prediction is proposed. Typically, regional atmosphere forecast systems assume a fixed sea surface temperature during a simulation. The study assesses the use of ocean temperature from an operational regional ocean model as an evolving lower boundary in a kilometrescale regional atmosphere configuration centred on the UK. Simulations of a winter and two five day duration summer case studies associated with anomalously warm temperatures are considered. The largest impact is found in summer, when a growing cold bias in mean temperature over land compared with observations is apparent when using a fixed global-scale analysis lower boundary condition. The mean error is improved by 0.1 K when using a fixed temperature boundary condition from a kilometre-scale regional ocean model initial condition. When using hourly surface temperature data from the same regional ocean model, the error is improved by 0.5 K for this case. Prediction of daytime maximum air temperature is also improved during the summer heat wave cases. A winter case study shows marginal improvement over the ocean and negligible changes over land.These results are confirmed in longer duration experiments using an hourly cycling regional forecast system with data assimilation for summer and winter periods. A systematic and statistically significant improvement of near-surface temperature verification relative to the observations over land is demonstrated for both summer and winter using the new approach. This study supports future operational implementation of a time-varying lower boundary for regional numerical weather prediction.

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“…The UK weather and climate is highly variable. Observed annual mean rainfall over England and Wales has not changed significantly since records began in 1766 (Jenkins et al, 2008), although the most recent decade (2010-2019) is wetter (>3% 1981-2010; >7% 1961-1990) for the UK overall (Kendon et al, 2020). The seasonal pattern of observed rainfall has changed.…”

Section: The Importance Of Hyporheic Exchange Flows For Nitrogen Cycling Under a Changing Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a groundwater‐fed river and potential response to perturbations changing rainfall patterns under UK climate change scenarios

Heathwaite

Heppell

Binley

et al. 2021

Hydrological Processes

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We report the complex spatial and temporal dynamics of hyporheic exchange flows (HEFs) and nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a 200 m groundwater-fed river.We show how research combining hydrological measurement, geophysics and isotopes, together with nutrient speciation techniques provides insight on nitrogen pathways and transformations that could not have been captured otherwise, including a zone of vertical preferential discharge of nitrate from deeper groundwater, and a zone of rapid denitrification linking the floodplain with the riverbed. Nitrate attenuation in

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State of the UK Climate 2019

Cited by 39 publications

References 34 publications

A dynamic prediction model for time‐to‐peak

A dynamic prediction model for time‐to‐peak

The impact of time‐varying sea surface temperature on UK regional atmosphere forecasts

Spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen exchange in an upwelling reach of a groundwater‐fed river and potential response to perturbations changing rainfall patterns under UK climate change scenarios

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