State of the world 2018: democracy facing global challenges

Abstract

This article analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018, and recent developments building on the 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset. First, the trend of autocratization continues and 24 countries are now affected by what is established as a "third wave of autocratization". Second, despite the global challenge of gradual autocratization, democratic regimes prevail in a majority of countries in the world (99 countries, 55%) in 2018. Thus, the state of the world is unmistakably more democratic compared to any point during the last century. At the same time, the number of electoral authoritarian regimes had increased to 55, or 31% of all countries. Third, the autocratization wave is disproportionally affecting democratic countries in Europe and the Americas, but also India's large population. Fourth, freedom of expression and the media, and the rule of law are the areas under attack in most countries undergoing autocratization, but toxic polarization of the public sphere is a threat to democracy spreading across regimes. Finally, we present the first model to predict autocratization ("adverse regime transitions") pointing to the top-10 most at-risk countries in the world.This article analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018, and developments since 1972 with an emphasis on the last 10 years. The analyses we present builds on the new 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset. We show, first, that the trend of autocratizationthe decline of democratic regime traitscontinues. The "third wave of autocratization" now affects 24 countries. When we weight levels of democracy by population sizebecause democracy is rule by the people and it matters how many of them are concernedthis trend is even more pronounced across all regions of the contributed mainly to the section on regime developments, and Rick K. Morgan to the prediction section. The v9 V-Dem data set: Coppedge et al., "V-Dem Dataset v9", Pemstein et al., "The V-Dem Measurement Model".

Pandemic backsliding: Violations of democratic standards during Covid-19

“…We consider the dissemination of gravely misleading and false information by governments on key facts about Covid-19 - what it is, how it is transmitted, and how it can be treated or cured - as an authoritarian practice. The deliberative principle of democracy implies that political leaders maintain a reason-based and respectful dialogue with the public ( Coppedge et al, 2011 ; Habermas, 1984 ; Lührmann et al, 2019 ). Spreading false information on Covid-19 runs counter to this principle.…”

Conceptualizing and Measuring Autocratization Episodes

“…The second empirical approach by Lührmann et al (2019) relies on the Liberal Democracy Index from the V‐Dem dataset. It also ranges on a continuous scale between 0 and 1.…”

Who makes the world? Academics and (un)cancelling the future

“…Back in the present day (2020), debates about the (future) role of academics as social agents and change-makers contemporary have been spurred by manifold observations of the global rise of ‘post-truth’ politics and right-wing populism (Jahn, 2016; Lührmann et al, 2019; Schindler, 2020). What role should ‘we’ as academics assume (critical commentator, policy advisor, etc.)?…”