Static and Dynamic Patient Characteristics as Predictors of Criminal Recidivism: A Prospective Study in a Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Sample.

Philipse, Martien; Koeter, Maarten W. J.; Staak, C.P.F. van der; Brink, Wim van den

doi:10.1007/s10979-006-9013-4

Cited by 30 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…This possibility is made less likely, however, by absence of any significant relationships among patients who were at risk when the assessments were conducted, and by the findings of significant inverse relationships between active psychotic symptoms and subsequent community violence over very short time spans (Monahan et al, 2001). Similar inverse relationships between symptoms favored as risk factors by forensic clinicians and violent outcomes have also been reported by others (Philipse, Koeter, Staak, & Brink, 2006). In addition, the finding that, just among the patients in secure facilities with psychosis, the severity of active symptoms was significantly inversely related to violence after discharge means that such symptoms alone cannot be defended 3 on ethical, professional, or empirical grounds as a reason to detain patients in maximum Had there been no significant association between psychotic symptom severity and subsequent violence, one might be tempted to defend such symptoms as valid violence risk factors by hypothesizing that patients with the most severe symptoms were not discharged until the symptoms were successfully treated.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 86%

Improving forensic tribunal decisions: the role of the clinician

McKee

Harris

Rice

2007

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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Three empirical investigations of forensic decision-making were conducted: a study of 104 hearings by a forensic tribunal; an evaluation of which aspects of forensic patients' clinical presentation were empirical predictors of violence; and a survey of forensic clinicians to determine which factors they said they used to assess risk of violent recidivism and which they actually used. Results showed a significant correlation between actuarial risk and clinical advice to the tribunal, and a nonsignificant trend for patients higher in actuarial risk to receive more restrictive dispositions. Psychotic diagnoses and symptoms were not indicators of increased risk of violent recidivism. Clinicians endorsed some empirically valid indicators of risk, but also relied on some invalid indicators. There was also inconsistency between factors clinicians said they used and factors actually related to their hypothetical decision-making. An automated system is presented as an illustration of how the consistency and validity of forensic decisions could be enhanced.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 86%

Improving forensic tribunal decisions: the role of the clinician

McKee

Harris

Rice

2007

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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“…In addition, retrospective assessment of dynamic factors by researchers (as conducted by Gray et al, 2008, and many others), which is based on-probably limited-file information about the patient's functioning at that particular time, may be qualitatively different from the real time assessment by the treating clinician, advocated here. It may be different with respect to the information available to the assessor, the likelihood of bias due to the direct interaction between assessor and assessee (Philipse, Koeter, Van der Staak, & Van den Brink, 2006), and the opportunity to influence the predicted outcome by taking risk management measures (Douglas & Kropp, 2002).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Routine violence risk assessment in community forensic mental healthcare

Brink

Hooijschuur

et al. 2009

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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We developed a method for periodic monitoring of violence risk, as part of routine community forensic mental healthcare. The feasibility of the method was tested, as well as its predictive validity for violent and risk enhancing behavior in the subsequent months. Participants were 83 clients who received forensic psychiatric home treatment, and six case managers. The method proved feasible and informative. Violent and risk enhancing behavior could be predicted to a reasonable extent (AUC ¼ .77, 95% CI ¼ .70-.85; respectively .76, .70-.82). Dynamic risk factors had an incremental predictive value over static factors in the prediction of violent behavior (OR ¼ 4.30, 1.72-10.73). The professional judgment of the case managers added further predictive power (OR ¼ 2.16, 1.40-3.33), corroborating the structured professional judgment approach. Finally, unmet needs for care of the client were associated with a reduced risk for violent and risk enhancing behavior (OR ¼ .80, and 0.84,). This latter finding suggests that in cases with unmet needs the case manager saw opportunities to do something about the risk. Currently we are testing whether using the method actually prevents violence.

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“…Black, 1982;Tennent and Way, 1984;Dell et al, 1987;Eronen et al, 1996;Buchanan, 1998;Friendship et al, 1999;Gagliardi et al, 2004;Jamieson and Taylor, 2004). Philipse et al (2006) applied dynamic factors in addition to static factors, but could not fi nd any effects of dynamic factors on recidivism. These authors, among others (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%