Statistical analysis of precipitation variations and its forecasting in Southeast Asia using remote sensing images

Abstract

The Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset was examined for its variability and performance in explaining precipitation variations, forecasting, and drought monitoring in Southeast Asia (SEA) for the period of 1981–2020. By using time-series analysis, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model this study established a data-driven approach for estimating the future trends of precipitation. The ARIMA model is based on the Box Jenkins approach, which removes seasonality and keeps the data stationary while forecasting future patterns. Depending on the series, ARIMA model annual estimates can be read as a blend of recent observations and long-term historical trend. Methods for determining 95 percent confidence intervals for several SEA countries and simulating future annual and seasonal precipitation were developed. The results illustrates that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka were chosen as the countries with the greatest inaccuracies. On an annual basis, Afghanistan has the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values at 33.285 mm, while Pakistan has the highest at 35.149 mm. It was predicted that these two countries would receive more precipitation in the future as compared to previous years.

Climate-environment interactions under global warming

“…The results of increasing precipitation extremes agree with the findings of the previous studies in Pakistan (Bhatti et al, 2020;Hussain et al, 2023a), which reported an overall rise in the mean and extreme precipitation in the country. These results are also in line with studies conducted in neighboring countries, like India Kripalani et al, 2022), Nepal (Sharma et al, 2023), China , and Southeast Asia (Cui et al, 2019;Syed et al, 2022), which revealed an increasing trend of monsoon extremes in the stated regions. The increasing tendency of monsoon precipitation extremes in Pakistan and neighboring countries could be attributed to dynamic changes in the global monsoon system, as suggested by studies 2017).…”

“…South Asian (SA) countries, including Pakistan, are at peak risk due to water and energy cycle changes (Eckstein and Kreft, 2020;Hussain M. et al, 2023). Therefore, assessing the nature and magnitude of changes in extreme and mean precipitation over SA countries has been the subject of several studies in recent years (Raghavan et al, 2012;Turner and Annamalai, 2012;Dahri et al, 2016;Naveendrakumar et al, 2019;Syed et al, 2022;Abbas et al, 2023b).…”

An increasing trend in daily monsoon precipitation extreme indices over Pakistan and its relationship with atmospheric circulations

“…The results of increasing precipitation extremes agree with the findings of the previous studies in Pakistan (Bhatti et al, 2020;Hussain et al, 2023a), which reported an overall rise in the mean and extreme precipitation in the country. These results are also in line with studies conducted in neighboring countries, like India (Singh et al, 2019;Kripalani et al, 2022), Nepal (Sharma et al, 2023), China (Wu et al, 2019), and Southeast Asia (Cui et al, 2019;Syed et al, 2022), which revealed an increasing trend of monsoon extremes in the stated regions. The increasing tendency of monsoon precipitation extremes in Pakistan and neighboring countries could be attributed to dynamic changes in the global monsoon system, as suggested by studies (Wang et al, 2012;.…”

“…South Asian (SA) countries, including Pakistan, are at peak risk due to water and energy cycle changes (Eckstein and Kreft, 2020;Hussain M. et al, 2023). Therefore, assessing the nature and magnitude of changes in extreme and mean precipitation over SA countries has been the subject of several studies in recent years (Raghavan et al, 2012;Turner and Annamalai, 2012;Dahri et al, 2016;Naveendrakumar et al, 2019;Almazroui et al, 2020;Syed et al, 2022;Abbas et al, 2023b).…”

Projection of precipitation extremes over South Asia from CMIP6 GCMs

“…Most of the river deltas in South Asia are heavily populated and are significantly dependent on agriculture for livelihood. The changing climate is putting pressure on water resources, which can lead to a high risk of water scarcity in this region (Zhai et al, 2020;Syed et al, 2022). The fast melting of glaciers, increasing unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, and the increased frequency of precipitation extremes render the people of South Asia more vulnerable to climate change (Immerzeel et al, 2015).…”