Statistical analysis of sub-daily precipitation extremes in Singapore

Beck, Ferdinand; Bàrdossy, András; Seidel, Jochen; Müller, Thomas J.; Sanchis, Elvira Fernandez; Hauser, A.

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.02.001

Cited by 41 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In this case, the two datasets have the same centred pattern of variation, but are not identical, unless α = 1. Hence, it is not possible to determine whether the two sets have the same amplitude of variation (Beck et al, 2015;Taylor, 2001). …”

Section: Correlation Coefficient Of Precipitation Data On Time Basismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Study of very long-period extreme precipitation records in Thessaloniki, Greece

Pakalidou

Karacosta

2018

Atmospheric Research

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The objective on this study is to fully statistically determine and describe the rainfall regime characteristics of the very long precipitation records of 124-year period in Thessaloniki and moreover to apply extreme value statistical methodologies to extreme daily rainfall information (period, 1931-2015), in order to define the extreme precipitation probability distributions. To meet these objectives, the observed annual, monthly and daily rainfall measurements obtained at the Meteorological Station of the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki are used. The use of both Mann-Kendall test and moving average methods are used to determine the profile of the examined very long-period rainfall regime in Thessaloniki, on annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. Taking into consideration the climatic change effect upon precipitation regimes, the extreme daily rainfall measurements are statistically analyzed with extreme value statistical methodologies, defining thus the extreme precipitation probability distribution functions. The Taylor diagram analysis, through combinations of appropriate correlation coefficients, standard deviations, and root-mean-square differences, are constructed to statistically quantify the degrees of similarity between reference points (mean annual precipitation) and results on seasonal and agricultural (agro-) seasonal basis. All the above tests are applied to detect possible changes in precipitation characteristics, over the study region, throughout the extreme long period of 124 years. The resulted probability distributions might potentially contribute to the prediction of extreme rainfall events, and be used for future climatic change projections. Moreover, based upon the resulted-adopted probability distributions, emerging from this extreme long study period, return periods for different extreme values of precipitation observed are calculated. KeywordsExtreme precipitation; statistical analysis; Taylor diagrams; Mann-Kendall test; extreme probability distributions; Thessaloniki (Greece) Manuscript category Climatology and climate change Corresponding Author Nikoletta Pakalidou Corresponding Author's InstitutionThe University of Manchester, School of Chemical Engineering and Analytical Science Order of Authors Reviewer 1:Comment #1:It is desirable to directly connect and interrelate the theoretical background information (equations, etc.) presented in paragraph 2.2, with the calculated values and results derived and presented through these equations (reference the eq. #). Authors' response:We agree with the reviewer and the comment is adopted. There are 19 equations in paragraph 2.2, and we use them in order to statistically study the precipitation records. We connect and interrelate these equations with the results derived. We do that by using these equations as reference, i.e. Equation #. Hence, the text on page 11 appears as follows:The annual M-K test was found with a positive trend (Z=0.376) by applying Equation 8 (Table 1). Moreov...

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Section: Correlation Coefficient Of Precipitation Data On Time Basismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in order to isolate the differences in the patterns from the differences in the means of the two datasets, it is defined that: < E > = < f > -< r > and the centred pattern RMS difference is given by (Beck et al, 2015;Taylor, 2001).…”

Section: Root-mean-square Differences In Precipitation Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Study of very long-period extreme precipitation records in Thessaloniki, Greece

Pakalidou

Karacosta

2018

Atmospheric Research

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“…According to news reports, a rainstorm in 2010 affected 16 cities and caused economic losses of more than one billion yuan. Because of the urbanization and human activities on the island, precipitation extremes of short duration and high intensity, which can be learned from researching on hourly precipitation data rather than daily precipitation data, have an impact on urban hydrology and storm-water management [5]. Additionally, Beck et al [5] also found that rainfall events exhibited different spatiotemporal characteristics in the early morning and in the afternoon, which cannot be described by daily precipitation data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Patterns in Hainan Island, South China

Chen

Longbing

et al. 2015

Water

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Abstract:To analyze extreme precipitation patterns in Hainan Island, hourly precipitation datasets from 18 stations, for the period from 1967 to 2012, were investigated. Two precipitation concentration indices (PCI) and 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPI) were chosen. PCI1 indicated a moderate seasonality in yearly precipitation and PCI2 showed that at least 80% of the total precipitation fell in 20% of the rainiest hours. Furthermore, the spatial variations of PCI1 and PCI2 differed. Linear regression indicated increasing trends in 11 of the calculated EPI. Principal component analysis found that the first recalculated principal component represented the 11 EPI. The recalculated principal component revealed an increasing trend in precipitation extremes for the whole island (except the interior section). Trend stability analysis of several of EPI suggested that the southern parts of Hainan Island, and especially the city of Sanya, should receive more attention to establish the drainage facilities necessary to prevent waterlogging.

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“…While no deaths or injuries were reported, the knee-deep flood waters resulted in S$ 23 million (US$ 17 million) of insurance claims (Chow, Cheong, & Ho, 2016). While the likelihood of urban flash-floods locally is high given the large degree of impermeable surface cover, combined with low elevation, tide levels, and coastal location, significant increases in (1) the measured intensity of rainfall events and (2) the recorded frequency of large rainfall events (over 70 mm/h) in 1980-2010 appear to be a causative factor in this recent prevalence of flash floods (Ministry of the Environment & Water Resources, 2012;Beck et al, 2015). In other words, a trend of more frequent and intense rainfall events in recent years can overwhelm existing drainage infrastructure not designed to anticipate increases in extreme precipitation.…”

Section: Resilience To Droughts and Floodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of weather extremes on urban resilience to hydro-climate hazards: a Singapore case study

Chow

2017

International Journal of Water Resources Development

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bInstitute of Water policy, lee Kuan Yew school of public policy, national university of singapore ABSTRACT Changing frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events directly affect settlement vulnerability; when combined with rapid urbanization, these factors also influence urban resilience to climaterelated hazards. This article documents how urban resilience can generally be maximized, before examining how it is impacted by extreme hydro-climatic events (i.e. droughts and floods), with a specific case examination for Singapore. In particular, analysis of Singapore's climate from 1950 to 2015 indicates (1) a warmer environment, and (2) recent periods of more intense surface dryness. Lastly, this article suggests how specific climate information regarding extreme event attribution can aid municipal stakeholders involved in urban resilience policy.

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Statistical analysis of sub-daily precipitation extremes in Singapore

Cited by 41 publications

References 25 publications

Study of very long-period extreme precipitation records in Thessaloniki, Greece

Study of very long-period extreme precipitation records in Thessaloniki, Greece

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hourly Precipitation Patterns in Hainan Island, South China

The impact of weather extremes on urban resilience to hydro-climate hazards: a Singapore case study

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