Statistical analysis of tourism flows between Ukraine and the Baltic Sea Region countries in 2012—2019

Abstract

This article explores the features and trends in inbound and outbound tourism flows between Ukraine and the Baltic Sea region (BSR) countries in 2012—2019. The research question is whether inbound or outbound tourism prevailed and how visa-free travel to the Schengen Area affected the number of Ukrainians travelling to the Baltic Sea Region. Two data sources were used in the study. These are the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index of the World Economic Forum and data from the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine on the number of foreign citizens visiting Ukraine and the number of Ukrainians travelling abroad. The study employs the statistical methods of structural shifts analysis, time series analysis, and graphical visualization. The findings indicate that Ukrainian outbound tourism was growing steadily over the study period, whilst visa-free travel to the Schengen Area had no statistically significant impact on the number of outbound tourists from Ukraine to the BSR. Outbound tourism flow prevailed over inbound. The number of inbound tourists to Ukraine sharply declined after 2013 because of the socio-political situation in the country. The analysis reveals significant changes in inbound and outbound tourism flow structures. The COVID-19 pandemic is shown to be a critical factor influencing the current state and prospects of the tourism industry.

Does the Visa-Free Policy Promote Inbound Tourism? Evidence From China

“…The results of this study suggest that the effect of visa liberalization on inbound tourism needs to be treated with caution. This view is similar to that of previous studies (Neiman & Swagel, 2009; Satyr et al, 2021; Tchorbadjiyska, 2007; Yudhistira et al, 2021; Zengeni & Zengeni, 2012). In particular, this study shows that the 72-hr visa-free transit policy has a negative and insignificant effect on inbound tourism, a result identical to the findings of Su et al (2012).…”

“…In Zimbabwe, visa restrictions played only a minor role in discouraging inbound tourism (Zengeni & Zengeni, 2012). Visa-free travel to the Schengen Area did not have a statistically significant impact on the number of tourists traveling from Ukraine to the Baltic Sea Region countries (Satyr et al, 2021). In Indonesia, while the visa exemption policy increased monthly foreign tourist arrivals by an average of 5%, the effect was evident only for less traditional destinations (Yudhistira et al, 2021).…”

“…This study has three important theoretical implications as follows: First, from a research perspective, this study examined the impact of visa policy on inbound tourism at the city level, thus providing important theoretical support for the further reform of visa policy and the recovery of inbound tourism. Visa liberalization may have a positive (Karaman, 2016;Li & Song, 2013;Neumayer, 2010), negative (Su et al, 2012), or insignificant effect (Neiman & Swagel, 2009;Satyr et al, 2021;Tchorbadjiyska, 2007;Yudhistira et al, 2021;Zengeni & Zengeni, 2012). The empirical evidence for these debates is overwhelming at the national level, while city-level research is extremely scarce.…”

“…Evidence from the United States (Neiman & Swagel, 2009), Japan (Lee et al, 2010), Turkey (Balli et al, 2013), and China (Song et al, 2012) shows that the easing of visa policies has a positive effect on inbound tourism. However, there is also evidence that relaxation of the visa regime has not increased the number of inbound tourists (Satyr et al, 2021; Zengeni & Zengeni, 2012). It is evident that there are two views on the impact of visa liberalization on international tourism: one view affirms the role of visa liberalization in promoting international tourism; the other view is that visa liberalization does not significantly increase international tourism.…”