Statistical characteristics of environmental parameters for warm season short-duration heavy rainfall over central and eastern China

Tian, Fuyou; Zheng, Yu; Zhang, Tao; Dongyan, Mao; Sun, Jie; Zhao, Shutao

doi:10.1007/s13351-014-4119-y

Cited by 29 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…After seeing different statistical characteristics of rainfall and large-scale flows associated with the three types of WSHR events, it is desirable to examine their corresponding pre-storm environmental thermodynamical parameters in terms of stability, PWAT and CAPE [58][59][60]. Accurate characterizing the pre-storm environmental soundings is often limited due partly to lacking observations in pre-storm environments with respect to approaching MCSs, and partly to the coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of conventional observations.…”

Section: Environmental Thermodynamical Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Chen

Zhang

2021

Atmosphere

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In view of the limited predictability of heavy rainfall (HR) events and the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms governing the initiation and organization of the associated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a composite analysis of 58 HR events over the warm sector (i.e., far ahead of the surface cold front), referred to as WSHR events, over South China during the months of April to June 2008~2014 is performed in terms of precipitation, large-scale circulations, pre-storm environmental conditions, and MCS types. Results show that the large-scale circulations of the WSHR events can be categorized into pre-frontal, southwesterly warm and moist ascending airflow, and low-level vortex types, with higher frequency occurrences of the former two types. Their pre-storm environments are characterized by a deep moist layer with >50 mm column-integrated precipitable water, high convective available potential energy with the equivalent potential temperature of ≥340 K at 850 hPa, weak vertical wind shear below 400 hPa, and a low-level jet near 925 hPa with weak warm advection, based on atmospheric parameter composite. Three classes of the corresponding MCSs, exhibiting peak convective activity in the afternoon and the early morning hours, can be identified as linear-shaped, a leading convective line adjoined with trailing stratiform rainfall, and comma-shaped, respectively. It is found that many linear-shaped MCSs in coastal regions are triggered by local topography, enhanced by sea breezes, whereas the latter two classes of MCSs experience isentropic lifting in the southwesterly warm and moist flows. They all develop in large-scale environments with favorable quasi-geostrophic forcing, albeit weak. Conceptual models are finally developed to facilitate our understanding and prediction of the WSHR events over South China.

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Section: Environmental Thermodynamical Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Chen

Zhang

2021

Atmosphere

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“…The importance of kinematic indicators is significantly undervalued if parameters are just put together for comparison. By classifying the parameters into indicators of moisture content, instability, and dynamic conditions, and dividing the hourly rainfall into no rainfall (less than 0.1 mm h −1 ), ordinary rainfall (intensities between 0.1 and 19.9 mm h −1 ), and SDHR (greater than 20.0 mm h −1 ), Tian et al [23] used millions of hourly rainfall records to study the performance of different parameters as indicators. Results show that the precipitable water (PWAT), the best lifted index (BLI), the K index (KI), and the DIV 925 are good at simultaneously discriminating SDHR from no rainfall and ordinary rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probability Forecasting of Short-Term Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Combining Ingredients-Based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Approach

et al. 2022

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Highly convection-related short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR), defined as rainfall greater than 20 mm h−1 of a whole hour, causes severe damage every year in China. An objective forecasting method is developed to provide guidance products for the short-term probability of SDHR. Representative parameters of environmental moisture content, instability, and dynamical forcing are selected as predictors based on the ingredients-based methodology. The predictors are selected by comparing their ability to discriminate between SDHR and both no rainfall and ordinary rainfall with hourly rainfall records and the NCEP reanalysis dataset during the warm seasons of 2002 and 2009. A fuzzy logic approach is obtained for the calculation of SDHR probability. Intervals of intensities are obtained based on specific percentiles and various weight settings examined. The probabilistic SDHR forecasts during the 2015 warm seasons with the NCEP GFS dataset are obtained, and forecasts are evaluated by using an operational used spatial verification method. Results show that the reference operational SDHR forecasts are surpassed by the 00–12 h period objective SDHR forecasts measured with the maximum critical success index (CSI), and even the average CSI (CSIave) for the top groups is better than the reference. The guidance SDHR products are skillful within 60 h. Although the weights vary significantly, the short-term patterns of the SDHR probability are mainly determined by the environmental conditions. The objective forecasting method is ingredients-based but is combined with fuzzy logic algorithms. The new approach provides a feasible exploration of the convective weather phenomenon.

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“…Most short‐term heavy rainfall events have short life cycles, a small spatial scale and show drastic changes in atmospheric elements (Tian et al ., 2015). City waterlogging, flash flooding, landslides, and geological disasters are caused by large amounts of precipitation that occur over a relatively short duration (Yamagishi et al ., 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chen et al (2012) documented that heavy rainfall is closely associated with water content and stratification stability in the atmosphere in Eastern China. Tian et al (2015) concluded that water vapour content is crucial to short-term heavy rainfall events during the warm season over Central and Eastern China. Liang and Ding (2017) suggested that regional warming, water vapour content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability provided favourable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation in Shanghai during 1916.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Joint influence of anomalous medium‐ and small‐scale circulations on short‐term heavy rainfall events over Beijing

Yang¹,

Wang²,

Nan

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Dense auto‐weather station data, variational doppler radar analysis system (fast updating radar four‐dimensional variation analysis system) data, radiosonde data and ERA‐Interim reanalysis data are used to investigate the joint influence of anomalous medium and small‐scale circulations associated with short‐term heavy rainfall events, which are influenced by the interaction between Pacific subtropical high and westerly trough (Type i) over Beijing between June and August 2007–2014. This Type i primarily comprises short‐term heavy rainfall events over Beijing. The results show that short‐term heavy rainfall events appear mainly over Northeastern and Southwestern Beijing, especially Northeastern Beijing, and generally reach a peak at dusk (19:00–21:00). Large‐scale circulations (an anomalous high in the east and an anomalous low in the west over Eastern Asia) favour the southeastern and southwestern winds to transport water vapour northward to Beijing. An anomalous mesoscale cyclone moves from west to northeast via the north to Beijing at approximately 20:00. An abnormal air temperature structure (warm and wet air at whole levels), an abnormal mesoscale circulation structure (with lower‐level convergence and mid‐upper‐level divergence) and the resulting abnormal vertical upward movement are well developed over Beijing. The upward branch over the southern outskirt of the anomalous mesoscale cyclone partly overlaps with that of the anomalous small‐scale cyclonic circulations or convergence lines (anomalous thunderstorm highs), and a striking vertical upward motion is produced. One airstream of the upward branches moves into the upper divergence region (it “pumps” mid‐lower level air into the mid‐upper levels) and makes the upward motion more vigorous. Another airstream turns around and descends fiercely to the surface (downward branches of anomalous thunderstorm highs); that is, the anomalous thunderstorm highs are reinforced, and the frequency peak in the short‐term heavy rainfall events occurs at dusk. The short‐term heavy rainfall events weaken at night. The analyses of vertical velocity anomalies for anomalous medium‐scale cyclone as well as turbulent vertical velocities and diagnostic radar echoes for anomalous small‐scale circulations in the heavy rainfall event on July 21, 2012 further verify the statistical results.

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Statistical characteristics of environmental parameters for warm season short-duration heavy rainfall over central and eastern China

Cited by 29 publications

References 22 publications

A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

A 7-Year Climatology of Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall over South China during the Pre-Summer Months

Probability Forecasting of Short-Term Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall Combining Ingredients-Based Methodology and Fuzzy Logic Approach

Joint influence of anomalous medium‐ and small‐scale circulations on short‐term heavy rainfall events over Beijing

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