Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections

Timm, O. Elison; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Díaz, Henry F.

doi:10.1002/2014jd022059

Cited by 104 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…However, the strong links between population growth rates and climate conditions mean that future persistence or recovery will be dependent on a wetter climate regime, particularly as temperatures rise and potentially lead to higher rates of evapotranspiration. Unfortunately, recent downscaled climate projections for Hawaiʻi predict a higher frequency and lower base height for the TWI [40], as well as decreased precipitation in both the wet and dry seasons for upper Haleakalā under future warming scenarios [7].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the same time, species responses to climate change are increasingly recognized and predicted to be more complex than simple poleward or upslope migration [2][3][4][5], and the incomplete nature of much ecological information likely hinders a better understanding of this complexity. This may be especially true in situations where precipitation is a key determinant of distributions and demographics, because changes to regional precipitation may be driven by complicated alterations to global circulation patterns combined with the influence of local features [6,7], and changes in precipitation frequently act in opposition to changes in temperature [2,3,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Change in trade wind inversion frequency implicated in the decline of an alpine plant

Krushelnycky

Starr

et al. 2016

Clim Chang Responses

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Background: Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results: The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely owing at least in part to management actions taken on its behalf. In contrast, the population is estimated to have suffered a decline of approximately 60 % since the early 1990s. Fine-scale estimates of rainfall within silversword habitat are strongly correlated with these decadal-scale population changes over the past 50 years, with rainfall estimated to be substantially lower on average during the two most recent inter-census periods (after 1991). The reversal in the silversword population trajectory, and declines in rainfall in silversword habitat, coincide with an abrupt increase in the frequency of occurrence of the trade wind inversion (TWI) in Hawaiʻi around 1990. Conclusions: The shift in TWI incidence, which is linked to stronger subsidence in the Hadley circulation, has led to drier conditions in high elevation ecosystems in Hawaiʻi and appears to be eliciting ecological responses. Other regions influenced by the TWI could be similarly affected. The silversword case study reveals additional unexpected outcomes, such as the likely initial retraction from wetter, rather than drier, portions of the range in response to drying conditions. This pattern may stem in part from variation in drought tolerance across the range, highlighting the importance of detailed ecological and climatic information for making accurate predictions about climate change responses.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in trade wind inversion frequency implicated in the decline of an alpine plant

Krushelnycky

Starr

et al. 2016

Clim Chang Responses

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“…A recent study with a high-resolution regional climate model (Zhang et al 2016) illustrates the difficulty of simulating Hawaiian Islands rainfall and the need for very high spatial resolutions to properly simulate the spatial and temporal patterns. Our approach follows that of Timm and Diaz (2009) and Elison Timm et al (2015)-namely, the use of synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation pattern information to infer changes in rainfall in Hawaii. The strongest association occurs during the nominally wet winter season of November through April, but the rainfall during the DJF period is strongly correlated with the 6-month values (r 5 0.82; cf.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Five-Century Reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands Winter Rainfall

Díaz

Wahl

Zorita³

et al. 2016

Journal of Climate

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Few if any high-resolution (annually resolved) paleoclimate records are available for the Hawaiian Islands prior to ;1850 CE, after which some instrumental records start to become available. This paper shows how atmospheric teleconnection patterns between North America and the northeastern North Pacific (NNP) allow for reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands rainfall using remote proxy information from North America. Based on a newly available precipitation dataset for the state of Hawaii and observed and reconstructed DecemberFebruary (DJF) sea level pressures (SLPs) in the North Pacific Ocean, the authors make use of a strong relationship between winter SLP variability in the northeast Pacific and corresponding DJF Hawaii rainfall variations to reconstruct and evaluate that season's rainfall over the period 1500-2012 CE. A general drying trend, though with substantial decadal and longer-term variability, is evident, particularly during the last ;160 years. Hawaiian Islands rainfall exhibits strong modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as in relation to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like variability. For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large-scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long-term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long-term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries. Also noted are some rather large multidecadal fluctuations in rainfall (and hence in NNP SLP) in the eighteenth century of undetermined provenance.

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“…However, such data cannot be directly used as input for small-scale watershed models, such as SWAT, and thus need further downscaling to obtain finer resolutions [62]. The finer resolutions have been achieved by using statistical or dynamical downscaling techniques [18,63]. In this study, we used the statistically downscaled rainfall data (anomaly report) for the Hawaiian Islands [18], which considered the Hawaiian local climate conditions, interactions, and topographic characteristics.…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study assesses the impact of climate change on streamflow and hydrological extremes (peak and low flows) by using the statistically downscaled rainfall data over the Hawaiian Islands for the middle century (2041-2070) and the late century (2071-2100) as reported by Timm et al [18] under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios [1]. The RCP 4.5 scenario refers to a radiative forcing value of 4.5 W m −2 , while the RCP 8.5 refers to a radiative forcing value of 8.5 W m −2 by the end of 21st century relative to the pre-industrial values [1,42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds

2018

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Abstract:The integration of hydrology and climate is important for understanding the present and future impact of climate on streamflow, which may cause frequent flooding, droughts, and shortage of water supply. In view of this, we assessed the impact of climate change on daily streamflow duration curves as well as extreme peak and low flow values. The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts watershed-wide streamflow and its extreme values and to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) on streamflow and hydrological extremes when compared with the baseline values. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for daily streamflow and its extreme value modeling of two watersheds located on the Island of Oahu (Hawaii). Following successful calibration and validation of SWAT at three USGS flow gauging stations, we simulated the impact of climate change by the 2050s (2041-2070) and the 2080s (2071-2100). We used climate change perturbation factors and applied the factors to the historical time series data of 1980-2014. SWAT adequately reproduced observed daily streamflow with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of greater than 0.5 and bracketed >80% of observed streamflow data at 95% model prediction uncertainty at all flow gauging stations, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow prediction. We found that while the considered climate change scenarios generally show considerable negative impacts on daily streamflow and its extreme values, the extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 22% especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, a consistent decrease in extreme low flows by as much as 60% compared to the baseline values is projected. Larger negative changes of low flows are expected in the upstream part of the watersheds where higher groundwater contributions are expected. Consequently, severe problems, such as frequent hydrological droughts (groundwater scarcity), reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water demand, are significantly expected on Oahu. Furthermore, the extreme values are more sensitive to rainfall change in comparison to temperature and solar radiation changes. Overall, findings generally indicated that climate change impacts will be amplified by the end of this century and may cause earlier occurrence of hydrological droughts when compared to the current hydrological regime, suggesting water resources managers, ecosystem conservationists, and ecologists to implement mitigation measures to climate change in Hawaii and similar Islands.

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Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections

Cited by 104 publications

References 82 publications

Change in trade wind inversion frequency implicated in the decline of an alpine plant

Change in trade wind inversion frequency implicated in the decline of an alpine plant

A Five-Century Reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands Winter Rainfall

Impact of Climate Change on Daily Streamflow and Its Extreme Values in Pacific Island Watersheds

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