Statistical–dynamical modeling of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity in Portugal

Sousa, Joana; Fragoso, Marcelo; Mendes, S.; Corte‐Real, João; Santos, João A.

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.04.010

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Those weather types were generated by a thermal low over the IP. Our result also agrees with those reported by Sousa et al () for Portugal. They found that in the summer, lightning activity was linked to inverted shallow troughs extended from North Africa towards Portugal, and mid‐tropospheric cold cores over the region.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Atmospheric background associated with severe lightning thunderstorms in Central Spain

Mora

Riesco

Dávila

et al. 2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A study of electrically severe thunderstorms (>2000 cloud-to-ground flashes per day) in the Spanish territory of Castilla-Leon (northern plateau of the Iberian Peninsula) has been performed using 11 years (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) of data. These episodes were classified according to average upper-level synoptic patterns. Seven synoptic patterns emerged: shortwave and very shortwave troughs, three types of lows, cyclonic vortex and ridge. The moisture content at low levels and static instability were also considered. In general, all the episodes were associated with instability and moderate moisture (11 g kg −1 for the average mixing ratio at 925 hPa). The electrically severe thunderstorms associated with five synoptic patterns (shortwave and very shortwave troughs, and three types of lows) generated hail, strong winds, and intense precipitation. By contrast, the cyclonic vortex and ridge synoptic types were not associated with severe weather.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Atmospheric background associated with severe lightning thunderstorms in Central Spain

Mora

Riesco

Dávila

et al. 2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The establishment of persistent large-scale eddies in the prevailing westerly flow [18,19], frequently connected to eddy-driven jet stream wave-breaking episodes [20,21], underlies the strong irregularity and inter-annual variability of precipitation in Portugal. Convective precipitation demonstrates a bimodal distribution in mainland Portugal [22], with a peak in April and another in October, which is also consistent with the seasonal cycle of hailfall and lightning [23,24]. Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula, namely, its western half, have also been related to similar largescale circulation patterns (westerly/south-westerly flow), with analogous seasonality [25].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 73%

“…These terrain characteristics play a key role in the spatial distribution of precipitation over Portugal, as well as in the development of orographically driven convection systems [22,23]. Mean annual total precipitation in Portugal, for the baseline 1981-2010 (30 years), varies from approximately 400 mm in the southernmost areas (e.g., southern coast of the Algarve), to 2000 mm and more in the high-elevation areas of the northwest (e.g., the Peneda-Gerês mountain range) (Figure 1b).…”

Section: Observational Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Sub-Hourly Precipitation Extremes in Mainland Portugal and Their Driving Mechanisms

Santos

Belo-Pereira

2022

Climate

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Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) frequently underlie major meteorological hazards, but their comprehensive analysis is still lacking in Portugal. A 71-weather-station dataset for 2000–2020 is used in this article to (1) diagnose SHHPs corresponding to a 10-min precipitation event of at least 5.0 mm, (2) characterize their spatial-temporal distribution, and (3) identify their associated synoptic-scale conditions. Two synoptic types are associated with SHHPs: remote (RemL) and regional (RegL) low-pressure systems. RegL SHHPs display two marked maxima in spring and autumn, while RemL SHHPs show a single maximum in autumn. Most RegL events occur in the afternoon/evening, while RemL events show a slight bias toward midday occurrences. In the case of RemL, the wind is stronger for 2 to 3 h before and during SHHPs, veers from 180° to 210° near the event, the pressure decreases until 20 min before the event, and the wet-bulb temperature decreases around the time of the event and remains low, thus reflecting cold-front passages. For RegL, maximum winds coincide with precipitation peaks, and the wet-bulb temperature briefly decreases in association with downdrafts. A preliminary relationship between the SHHPs and mesoscale convective systems is established by detecting sudden surface-pressure surges, which are indicative of mesohighs caused by evaporatively cooled downdrafts. A calendar of mesohigh episodes linked to SHHPs is provided herein and their signatures are illustrated for the “Pedrógão-Grande” fires. Indicators of several downbursts, cold pools, and mesohighs were identified by the AROME forecast. This first, systematized analysis paves the way to identifying dynamic precursors, enabling their integration into early warning systems and climate projections.

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“…This hail climatology is thereby a first step to support decisions involved, for example, in agricultural planning and in other relevant socio‐economic sectors in Portugal. In addition, a more in depth analysis of the atmospheric drivers of hail events in Portugal, including an assessment of potentially predictive indices, such as in a previous research for lightning in Portugal (Sousa et al, ), will also be the focus of a forthcoming study. The identification of these indices is of utmost relevance in operational weather forecasting, by assisting meteorologists towards a more accurate prediction of hail occurrences, also with evident benefits to many socio‐economic sectors throughout the country.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comprehensive analysis of hail events in Portugal: Climatology and consistency with atmospheric circulation

Santos

Belo-Pereira

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A first hail climatology in mainland Portugal is provided, based on a network of 15 meteorological stations and over the period of 1971–2009 (39 years). Three hail sub‐classes based on the SYNOP codes were considered (small hail, hail without thunder and hail with thunder). Furthermore, hail occurrences were also compared with thunderstorm, convection and precipitation days. Hail events are more frequent in northern Portugal during winter and spring (peaking in April). Both thunderstorm and convection events present a maximum in April–May and a secondary peak in autumn (October). This secondary peak is frequently associated with convective storms without hailfall at the ground, as no clear autumnal maximum is recorded in the hail frequency, particularly in the case of small hail and hail without thunder. The typically higher temperatures in October than in February–April may lead to excessively high‐freezing level heights that hamper hailfall at the surface. The dynamical mechanisms underlying hail occurrence in mainland Portugal were also analysed using eight three‐dimensional weather types. The atmospheric conditions associated with three weather types: Western European Trough, Blocking and Scandinavian Trough were responsible for ca. 75% of the hail events throughout Portugal. Overall, hail events are favoured either by extra‐tropical depressions, with cold front passages over Portugal, or by upper‐level troughs/lows over western Iberia, but preferably occurring in the period from December to May. These dynamical drivers promote instability conditions, which were also diagnosed by the convective available potential energy and total‐totals index.

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Statistical–dynamical modeling of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity in Portugal

Cited by 16 publications

References 49 publications

Atmospheric background associated with severe lightning thunderstorms in Central Spain

Atmospheric background associated with severe lightning thunderstorms in Central Spain

Sub-Hourly Precipitation Extremes in Mainland Portugal and Their Driving Mechanisms

A comprehensive analysis of hail events in Portugal: Climatology and consistency with atmospheric circulation

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