Statistical framework to assess long-term spatio-temporal climate changes: East River mountainous watershed case study

Faybishenko, Boris; Arora, Bhavna; Dwivedi, D.; Brodie, E.

doi:10.1007/s00477-022-02327-7

Cited by 3 publications

References 25 publications

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Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Carroll,

Niswonger,

Ulrich

et al. 2024

Nat Water

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Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

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Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Carroll,

Niswonger,

Ulrich

et al. 2024

Nat Water

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Dwindling Groundwater Reserves Will Threaten Mountain Streamflow in a Warmer World

Carroll,

Niswonger,

Ulrich

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Groundwater storage and release in mountain systems is often ignored compounding uncertainty in how these systems may respond to climate change. To assess the importance of groundwater to mountain streamflow, we combine an extensive data network with a high-resolution, integrated hydrologic model stretching into the deep subsurface for a Colorado River headwater basin. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use reduces recharge, thereby destabilizing groundwater storage such that it cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion significantly reduces average annual streamflow and forces the basin toward non-perennial conditions during dry water years. Groundwater declines are amplified in high-relief, conifer-dominated catchments. Upscaling model results across the region indicates concentrated risk of groundwater decline in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison Basins. Research highlights the tight coupling of topography, vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding groundwater response to warming will underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

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Stream water sourcing from high-elevation snowpack inferred from stable isotopes of water: a novel application of d-excess values

Sprenger,

Carroll,

Marchetti

et al. 2024

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. About 80 % of the precipitation at the Colorado River's headwaters is snow, and the resulting snowmelt-driven hydrograph is a crucial water source for about 40 million people. Snowmelt from alpine and subalpine snowpack contributes substantially to groundwater recharge and river flow. However, the dynamics of snowmelt progression are not well understood because observations of the high-elevation snowpack are difficult due to challenging access in complex mountainous terrain as well as the cost and labor intensity of currently available methods. We present a novel approach to infer the processes and dynamics of high-elevation snowmelt contributions predicated upon stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios observed in streamflow. We show that deuterium-excess (d-excess) values of stream water could serve as a comparatively cost-effective proxy for a catchment-integrated signal of high-elevation snowmelt contributions to catchment runoff. We sampled stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of the precipitation, snowpack, and stream water in the East River, a headwater catchment of the Colorado River, and the stream water of larger catchments at sites on the Gunnison River and Colorado River. The d-excess of snowpack increased with elevation; the upper subalpine and alpine snowpack (> 3200 m) had substantially higher d-excess compared to lower elevations (< 3200 m) in the study area. The d-excess values of stream water reflected this because d-excess values increased as the higher-elevation snowpack contributed more to stream water generation later in the snowmelt/runoff season. End-member mixing analyses based on the d-excess data showed that the share of high-elevation snowmelt contributions within the snowmelt hydrograph was on average 44 % and generally increased during melt period progression, up to 70 %. The observed pattern was consistent during 6 years for the East River, and a similar relation was found for the larger catchments on the Gunnison and Colorado rivers. High-elevation snowpack contributions were found to be higher for years with lower snowpack and warmer spring temperatures. Thus, we conclude that the d-excess of stream water is a viable proxy to observe changes in high-elevation snowmelt contributions in catchments at various scales. Inter-catchment comparisons and temporal trends of the d-excess of stream water could therefore serve as a catchment-integrated measure to monitor if mountain systems rely on high-elevation water inputs more during snow drought compared to years of average snowpack depths.

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Statistical framework to assess long-term spatio-temporal climate changes: East River mountainous watershed case study

Cited by 3 publications

References 25 publications

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Dwindling Groundwater Reserves Will Threaten Mountain Streamflow in a Warmer World

Stream water sourcing from high-elevation snowpack inferred from stable isotopes of water: a novel application of d-excess values

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