Statistical linkage between coastal El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific

Song, Jun Yeob; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Duan, Yihong

doi:10.1002/asl.1071

Cited by 6 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Previous studies have shown that locations of the maximum SST anomalies related to ENSO can modulate the ENSO impacts on the WNP TC activity (Chen and Tam, 2010;Zhang et al, 2012;Patricola et al, 2016;Zhao and Wang, 2018). Although both the eastern Pacific El Niño (EPE) and central Pacific El Niño (CPE) can cause the dipole anomalies in the WNP TC genesis, the horizontal location of the dipole related to the CPE is more westward compared to the EPE due to the more westward anomalous warming of CPE (Kim et al, 2011;Song et al, 2021). However, the models in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA project have poor performance in the diversity of El Niño events, there are few differences in the simulation of WNPTCs activity between different El Niño events.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, we focus on the WNPTC genesis during July-October (JASO) that counts more than 60% of the annual WNPTCs (Song et al, 2021). The annual-mean TC genesis both in the observations and models are first binned in 5 °× 5 °grid boxes and then applied the nine-point smoothing (Camargo and Sobel, 2005;Zhang et al, 2016a;Kossin et al, 2016;Tan et al, 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of model resolution on responses of western North Pacific tropical cyclones to ENSO in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA ensemble

2023

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The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the major driver of interannual variations of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs). Realistic reproduction of ENSO-WNPTC teleconnection in coupled models (CGCMs) is thus crucial for improved seasonal-to-interannual prediction of WNPTC activity. Here, basing on the outputs of six pairs of high-resolution (HR) and low-resolution (LR) CGCMs participating the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA project, we showed that the HR models outperform the LR ones in reproducing the observed increase of TC genesis in the southeastern WNP but the decrease in the northwestern WNP in the developing years of El Niño. The better performance of HR than LR models is on one hand due to the generally increased frequency and variability of TCs in the HR models. On the other hand, the teleconnection of El Niño to the WNP shows a dipole circulation difference between the HR and LR models with an anomalous cyclone in the southeastern WNP and anticyclone in the northwestern WNP, which enhances the dipole TC genesis anomalies in the HR compared to the LR models. The teleconnection difference stems from the westward shift of the ENSO-related SST and convection anomalies in the tropical Pacific in the HR compared to the LR models, which may be ultimately linked to the reduced cold tongue biases in the HR models.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of model resolution on responses of western North Pacific tropical cyclones to ENSO in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA ensemble

2023

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“…For an easy comparison of anomalous fields between the HR and LR models, the monthly outputs are commonly interpolated into the 1°×1° gird in advance. In this study, we focus on the WNPTC genesis and track during July-October (JASO) that counts more than 60% of the annual WNPTCs (Song et al 2021). The annual-mean TC genesis and track both in the observations and models are first binned in 5°×5° grid boxes and then applied the nine-point smoothing (Camargo and Sobel 2005;Kossin et al 2016;Zhang et al 2016a;Tan et al 2019).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Model Resolution on Responses of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to ENSO in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Ensemble

Liu

Yuan

Luo

2022

Preprint

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The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the major driver of interannual variations in the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs). Realistic reproduction of ENSO-WNPTC teleconnection in coupled models (CGCMs) is thus crucial for improved seasonal-to-interannual prediction of WNPTC activity. Here, basing on the outputs of six pairs of high-resolution (HR) and low-resolution (LR) CGCMs participating the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA project, we showed that both HR and LR models can reproduce well the increased/decreased TC genesis and track in the southeastern WNP but the decreased/increased in the northwestern WNP in the developing years of El Niño/La Niña, but the HR models outperform the LR by simulating higher anomalous amplitudes closer to the observed. The better performance of HR than LR models is on one hand due to the generally increased frequency and variability of TCs in the HR models. On the other hand, the teleconnection of El Niño/La Niña to the WNP shows a dipole circulation difference between the HR and LR models with an anomalous cyclone/anticyclone in the southeastern WNP and anticyclone/cyclone in the northwestern WNP, which enhances the dipole TC genesis and track anomalies in the HR compared to the LR models. The teleconnection difference stems from the location differences in the ENSO-related SST and convection anomalies in the tropical Pacific, which may be ultimately linked to the reduced cold tongue biases in the HR compared to the LR models.

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“…Nonetheless, typhoon activity cannot be forecasted directly by ENSO intensity. In fact, during 1961-2019, the overall direct correlation between the typhoon frequency in the WNP and the SST anomaly during the typhoon season was only −0.14 (Song et al, 2022). The reason lies in the diverse effects of ENSO on typhoons (Shi et al, 2019;Guo and Tan, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Extreme anomalies under El Niño and La Niña developing tendencies restrain subsequent severe typhoons in the western North Pacific

Fang

Chen

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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Forecasting typhoon features over a few upcoming months is necessary for planning disaster prevention and predicting the drought/flood situation. However, the current methods are more suitable for forecasting the interannual to interdecadal variation trends or demanding huge computing resources and are unsuitable for the operation of short-term climate forecasts. In order to devise other effective approaches, the correlation between the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) in January and the frequency of severe typhoons (STYs) during 1959–2018 was analyzed for the two scenarios when the ONI trend during the previous year was higher and lower than zero. The reason for this classification is that the air‒sea conditions were different when the oceanic phenomena developed toward an El Niño or La Niña phase during the previous year, and the results of these trends affect the subsequent features of atmospheric dynamic factors favorable for TC development (relative vorticity and vertical velocity). The extreme anomalies under both the increasing and decreasing tendencies of ONI in January typically retrained the growth of STYs, as the subsequent decreasing ocean heat anomaly of the previous year was accompanied by a negative vorticity anomaly and downward vertical velocity anomaly in the lower atmosphere and vice versa. Results from the forecast test show that the accuracy of the new approach was acceptable and somewhat higher than that of the current methods. Thus, these results can assist in developing a practical approach for typhoon forecasts.

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Statistical linkage between coastal El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific

Cited by 6 publications

References 38 publications

Impacts of model resolution on responses of western North Pacific tropical cyclones to ENSO in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA ensemble

Impacts of model resolution on responses of western North Pacific tropical cyclones to ENSO in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA ensemble

Impacts of Model Resolution on Responses of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to ENSO in the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Ensemble

Extreme anomalies under El Niño and La Niña developing tendencies restrain subsequent severe typhoons in the western North Pacific

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