Statistical modelling of extreme ocean environments for marine design: A review

Jonathan, Philip; Ewans, Kevin

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2013.01.004

Cited by 138 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 84 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Huseby et al, 2013Huseby et al, , 2015Jonathan and Ewans, 2013). These contours are defined within the input variables space but are based on the probability of exceedance of the response variable.…”

Section: Environmental Contourmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The classic approach recommended in several countries in the EU, for example in the Water Framework Directive, or in the areas of potentially significant flood risk and national directives like the Plan de Prevention des Risques Littoraux in France involves running several scenarios with different return periods (10, 50 or 100 years) plus several scenarios for the same return period. Numerous studies have focused on multivariate extreme value analyses of interdependent meteorological and marine variables (for a review, see Jonathan and Ewans, 2013;Monbet et al, 2007). The complexity of a multivariate extreme value analysis is due to the inadequacy of current knowledge on the interdependence of variables in the tail of the multivariate distribution.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the related field of structural engineering (design of coastal defences, offshore renewable energy systems, etc. ), it is usual to refer to the environmental contour concept in conjunction with the inverse first-order reliability method (iFORM) (Winterstein et al, 1993;Jonathan and Ewans, 2013;Huseby et al, 2013Huseby et al, , 2015. Such an approach focuses on extreme system responses rather than on the combinations of extreme environmental loads.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

Lerma¹,

Bulteau²,

Elineau³

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping / overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor 4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and 3.47 in flooded surfaces.

show abstract

Section: Environmental Contourmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

Lerma¹,

Bulteau²,

Elineau³

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Statistical analysis of extreme values plays an important role in environmental sciences (for reviews, see Katz et al (2002) and Jonathan and Ewans (2013)). An example, which is also the main theme of this work, is the study of extreme rainfalls, whose accurate inference and forecast are essential ingredients for the assessment of flood risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latent Process Modelling of Threshold Exceedances in Hourly Rainfall Series

Bortot

Gaetan

2016

JABES

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Two features are often observed in analyses of both daily and hourly rainfall series.One is the tendency for the strength of temporal dependence to decrease when looking at the series above increasing thresholds. The other is the empirical evidence for rainfall extremes to approach independence at high enough levels. To account for these features, Bortot and Gaetan (2014) focus on rainfall exceedances above a fixed high threshold and model their dynamics through a hierarchical approach that allows for changes in the temporal dependence properties when moving further into the right tail.It is found that this modelling procedure performs generally well in analyses of daily rainfalls, but has some inherent theoretical limitations that affect its goodness of fit in the context of hourly data. In order to overcome this drawback, we develop here a modification of the Bortot and Gaetan model derived from a copula-type technique.Application of both model versions to rainfall series recorded in Camborne, England, shows that they provide similar results when studying daily data, but, in the analysis of hourly data the modified version is superior.

show abstract

“…An alternative approach to estimate return values of significant wave height, referred to as the (modified) Rice method is proposed in Rychlik et al (2011). See also the review of extreme value modelling for marine design in Jonathan and Ewans (2013). Possibly, results from these and other approaches could be applied in future work and compared to the results in this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in extreme value modelling of wave data in a climate change perspective

Vanem

2015

J. Ocean Eng. Mar. Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The extreme values of wave climate data are of great interest in a number of different applications, including the design and operation of ships and offshore structures, marine energy generation, aquaculture and coastal installations. Typically, the return values of certain met-ocean parameters such as significant wave height are of particular importance. In a climate change perspective, projections of such return values to a future climate are of great importance for risk management and adaptation purposes. However, there are various ways of estimating the required return values, which introduce additional uncertainties in extreme weather and climate variables pertaining to both current and future climates. Many of these approaches are investigated in this paper by applying different methods to particular data sets of significant wave height, corresponding to the historic climate and two future projections of the climate assuming different forcing scenarios. In this way, the uncertainty due to the extreme value analysis can also be compared to the uncertainty due to a changing climate. The different approaches that are considered in this paper are the initial distribution approach, the block maxima approach, the peak over threshold approach and the average conditional exceedance rate method. Furthermore, the effect of different modelling choices within each of the approaches will be explored. Thus, a range of different return value estimates for the different data sets is obtained. This exercise reveals that the uncertainty due to the extreme value analysis method is notable and, as expected, the variability of the estimates increases for higher return periods. Moreover, even though the variability due to the extreme value analysis is greater than the climate variability, a shift towards higher extremes in a future wave climate

show abstract

Statistical modelling of extreme ocean environments for marine design: A review

Cited by 138 publications

References 84 publications

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

Latent Process Modelling of Threshold Exceedances in Hourly Rainfall Series

Uncertainties in extreme value modelling of wave data in a climate change perspective

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About