Statistical Models of Criminal Behavior: The Effects of Law Enforcement Actions

Abstract

Abstract:We extend an agent-based model of crime-pattern formation initiated in Short et al. by incorporating the effects of law enforcement agents. We investigate the effect that these agents have on the spatial distribution and overall level of criminal activity in a simulated urban setting. Our focus is on a two-dimensional lattice model of residential burglaries, where each site (target) is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness to burglary and where criminal and law enforcement agents are represented by random walkers. The dynamics of the criminal agents and the target-attractiveness field are, with certain modifications, as described in Short et al. Here the dynamics of enforcement agents are affected by the attractiveness field via a biasing of the walk, the detailed rules of which define a deployment strategy. We observe that law enforcement agents, if properly deployed, will in fact reduce the total amount of crime, but their relative effectiveness depends on the number of agents deployed, the deployment strategy used, and spatial distribution of criminal activity. For certain policing strategies, continuum PDE models can be derived from the discrete systems. The continuum models are qualitatively similar to the discrete systems at large system sizes.

Predictive crime mapping

“…Other similar models have used mathematical approaches such as random walks (Jones, Brantingham, & Chayes, 2010;Short et al, 2009) to represent processes of crime. Given the fine detail of VPD's data and long-time series of available data, a statistical model can harness past information on crime to predict future patterns.…”

Deter and protect: crime modeling with multi-agent learning

“…Following statistical formulas, offenders could commit crimes and move around the environment. Jones et al [28] extended this model by incorporating guardian agents (which they called law enforcement) in the grid environment. The presence of guardian agents was used to deter offenders from committing crime.…”

“…Malleson's [39] work did not use guardian agents in the model. Initially Short et al [27] did not use guardian agents, however later work by Jones et al [28] incorporated them into the model. When the three elements of RAT were incorporated as agents, again previous research was inconsistent on giving guardian agents any sort of learning process.…”

A multi-criteria Police Districting Problem for the efficient and effective design of patrol sector

“…• Recent papers have analyzed the statistical effect of law enforcement actions on crime patterns (Jones et al, 2010). By including these effects in an optimization problem it would be possible to formulate a model for the design of patrol configurations that result in a reduction of the future level of criminality.…”