Stature and frailty during the Black Death: the effect of stature on risks of epidemic mortality in London, A.D. 1348–1350

Abstract

Recent research has shown that preexisting health condition affected an individual’s risk of dying during the 14th-century Black Death. However, a previous study of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality during the epidemic failed to find a relationship between the two; this result is perhaps surprising given the well-documented inverse association between stature and mortality in human populations. We suggest that the previous study used an analytical approach that was more complex than was necessary for an assessment of the effect of adult stature on risk of mortality. This study presents a reanalysis of data on adult stature and age-at-death during the Black Death in London, 1348–1350 AD. The results indicate that short stature increased risks of mortality during the medieval epidemic, consistent with previous work that revealed a negative effect of poor health on risk of mortality during the Black Death. However, the results from a normal, non-epidemic mortality comparison sample do not show an association between stature and risks of mortality among adults under conditions of normal mortality. Fisher’s exact tests, used to determine whether individuals who were growing during the Great Famine of 1315–1322 were more likely to be of short stature than those who did not endure the famine, revealed no differences between the two groups, suggesting that the famine was not a source of variation in stature among those who died during the Black Death.

Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague

“…Similarly, it has been shown that epidemic mortality in historic populations was apparently not selective with respect to age and sex among adults [8][9][10][11][12]. Conversely, it was shown that mortality associated with the medieval epidemic was selective with respect to frailty [10,11].…”

“…Conversely, it was shown that mortality associated with the medieval epidemic was selective with respect to frailty [10,11]. Individuals who were in poor health before the epidemics were more likely to die than were their healthy peers [11].…”

Bioarchaeological evidence for adaptive plasticity and constraint: Exploring life‐history trade‐offs in the human past

“…These findings were interpreted within the broader sphere of adaptive plasticity and constraint as faster maturation likely permitted earlier reproduction, but this process was associated with elevated mortality. The impact of early life stress on survivorship in the wake of infectious disease epidemics is also illustrated in historic cemeteries used as repositories for victims of bubonic plague . Individuals with shorter stature had a greater risk of dying from the bubonic plague in historic London, although this association is not repeated under conditions of normal mortality.…”

Paradox and promise: Research on the role of recent advances in paleodemography and paleoepidemiology to the study of “health” in Precolumbian societies

“…Results of hazard modeling demonstrate that elevated mortality rates were commonplace during the latter half of the Mississippian period (AD 1200-1450) with reproductive-age females experiencing high age-specific risk of death attributed to the development of fortified villages and novel environments for increased pathogen loads. While scholars continue to reference this paradox and ponder the theoretical implications (e.g., Goodman and Martin, 2002;Lambert, 2009), the methodological challenges associated with analyzing death assemblages have been largely overlooked with several notable exceptions (Boldsen, 1997(Boldsen, , 2005(Boldsen, , 2007Usher, 2000;DeWitte and Wood, 2008;DeWitte, 2010;Bekvalac, 2010, 2011;Redfern and DeWitte, 2011;DeWitte and Hughes-Morey, 2012;DeWitte et al, 2013). The epidemiological models demonstrate that the relationship between adult mortality and early childhood stress varied through space, culture, and time.…”