Stay alert: probability of African Swine Fever introduction from Eastern Asia is almost as high as from Eastern Europe

Friker, Brian; Schüpbach, Gertraud

doi:10.17236/sat00319

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The use of expert opinion was described by some authors to reduce the uncertainty surrounding parameters where data were scarce ( 7 , 30 , 39 , 41 , 42 , 52 ). Some studies used workshops involving experts from a range of relevant backgrounds to confirm risk parameters, risk pathways and numerical weightings for risk factors reaching a final consensus of agreement ( 7 , 52 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of qualitative risk assessment in animal health: Suggestions for best practice

Horigan

Simons²,

Kavanagh³

et al. 2023

Front. Vet. Sci.

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Qualitative risk assessment (QRA) can provide decision support in line with the requirement for an objective, unbiased assessment of disease risk according to the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures of the World Trade Organization. However, in order for a QRA to be objective and consistently applied it is necessary to standardize the approach as much as possible. This review considers how QRAs have historically been used for the benefit of animal health, what problems have been encountered during their progression, and considers best practice for their future use. Four main elements were identified as having been the subject of some proposed standard methodology: (i) the description of risk levels, (ii) combining probabilities, (iii) accounting for trade volume and time period, and (iv) uncertainty. These elements were addressed in different ways but were highlighted as being fundamental to improving the robustness in estimating the risk and conveying the results to the risk manager with minimal ambiguity. In line with this, several tools have been developed which attempt to use mathematical reasoning to incorporate uncertainty and improve the objectivity of the qualitative framework. This represents an important advance in animal health QRA. Overall, animal health QRAs have established their usefulness by providing a tool for rapid risk estimation which can be used to identify important chains of events and critical control points along risk pathways and inform risk management programmes as to whether or not the risk exceeds a decision-making threshold above which action should be taken. Ensuring a robust objective methodology is used and that the reasons for differences in results, such as assumptions and uncertainty are clearly described to the customer with minimal ambiguity is essential to maintain confidence in the QRA process. However, further work needs to be done to determine if one objective uniform methodology should be developed and considered best practice. To this end, a set of best practice guidelines presenting the optimal way to conduct a QRA and regulated by bodies such as the World Organization for Animal Health or the European Food Safety Authority would be beneficial.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of qualitative risk assessment in animal health: Suggestions for best practice

Horigan

Simons²,

Kavanagh³

et al. 2023

Front. Vet. Sci.

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“…In this case, 'doing nothing' is defined as not instigating the control measures pertaining to the category 'Preven- an outbreak occurring in wild boar was assumed to be 75%, compared to 25% for a domestic pig outbreak. These assumptions were deduced from an internal risk assessment of ASF introduction into Switzerland (Friker & Schüpbach, 2021).…”

Section: Decision Tree Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A methodology to assess indirect economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks: A case of hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland

Savioli

Ahmadi

Muñoz

et al. 2022

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Indirect costs of animal disease outbreaks often significantly exceed the direct costs. Despite their importance, indirect costs remain poorly characterized due to their complexity. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the indirect costs of a hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland. We collected data through international and national stakeholder interviews, analysis of national disease control regulations and industry data. We developed a framework to capture the resulting qualitative and quantitative data, categorize the impacts of these regulations, and rank the impacts in order of importance. We then developed a spreadsheet model to calculate the indirect costs of one category of control measure for an individual group of stakeholders. We developed a decision tree model to guide the most economically favourable implementation plan for a given control measure category, under different outbreak scenarios. Our results suggest that the most important measure/impact categories were ‘Transport logistics’, ‘Consumer demand’, ‘Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact’ and ‘Slaughter logistics’. In our hypothetical scenario, the greatest costs associated with ‘Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact’ were due to assumed partial or total depopulation of fattening pig farms in order to reduce herd size to comply with the simulated control regulations. The model also provides suggestions on the most economically favourable strategy to reduce contact between wild boar and domestic pigs in control areas. Our approach provides a new framework to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to guide disease control strategy. This method could be useful in other countries and for other diseases, including in data‐ and resource‐poor settings, or areas with limited experience of animal disease outbreaks.

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“…ASFV acute infections in domestic pigs can cause 100% mortality rate ( Blome et al., 2013 ; Sánchez-Vizcaíno et al., 2015 ). Since 2018, outbreaks of ASF have been reported in Asia, Europe, and South America, including China, Mongolia, Vietnam, Cambodia, North Korea, Myanmar, Laos, Belgium, Haiti, Dominican Republic ( Zhou et al., 2018 ; Rai et al., 2020 ; Friker and Schüpbach, 2021 ). It has caused severe economic losses to the pig industry in these countries ( Tran et al., 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple nanobody-based competitive ELISA to detect antibodies against African swine fever virus

Zhao¹,

Zhu²,

Wang³

et al. 2022

Virologica Sinica

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Stay alert: probability of African Swine Fever introduction from Eastern Asia is almost as high as from Eastern Europe

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

A review of qualitative risk assessment in animal health: Suggestions for best practice

A review of qualitative risk assessment in animal health: Suggestions for best practice

A methodology to assess indirect economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks: A case of hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland

A simple nanobody-based competitive ELISA to detect antibodies against African swine fever virus

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