Stay or go? Geographic variation in risks due to climate change for fishing fleets that adapt in-place or adapt on-the-move

Abstract

From fishers to farmers, people across the planet who rely directly upon natural resources for their livelihoods and well-being face extensive impacts from climate change. However, local- and regional-scale impacts and associated risks can vary geographically, and the implications for development of adaptation pathways that will be most effective for specific communities are underexplored. To improve this understanding at relevant local scales, we developed a coupled social-ecological approach to assess the risk posed to fishing fleets by climate change, applying it to a case study of bottom trawl groundfish fleets that are a cornerstone of fisheries along the U.S. West Coast. Based on the mean of three high-resolution climate projections, we found that more poleward fleets may experience twice as much local temperature change as equatorward fleets, and 3-4 times as much depth displacement of historical environmental conditions in their fishing grounds. Not only are they more highly exposed to climate change, but more poleward fleets can be >10x more economically-dependent on groundfish. While we show clear regional differences in fleets’ flexibility to shift to new fisheries (‘adapt in-place’) or shift their fishing grounds in response to future change (‘adapt on-the-move’), these differences do not completely mitigate the greater exposure and economic dependence of poleward fleets. Therefore, on the U.S. West Coast more poleward fishing fleets may be at greater overall risk due to climate change, in contrast to expectations for greater equatorward risk in other parts of the world. Through integration of climatic, ecological, and socio-economic data, this case study illustrates the potential for widespread implementation of risk assessment at scales relevant to fishers, communities, and decision makers. Such applications will help identify the greatest opportunities to mitigate climate risks through adaptation that enhances mobility and diversification in fisheries.

Marine heatwaves redistribute pelagic fishing fleets

“…Although our models do not predict vessel-level dynamics, an extension of this work may include leveraging VDM outputs in agent-based modelling approaches (Burgess et al, 2020), using fishing ground suitability to spatially inform the degree of fishing opportunity a fisher can act on. Such an approach could help capture where sources of risk from MHWs stem from needed to enhance resilience for pelagic fisheries to future extreme events (Samhouri et al, 2023).…”

“…Such an approach could help capture where sources of risk from MHWs stem from (e.g. low portfolio diversification or low fleet mobility) and highlight where development in other dimensions of adaptive capacity may be needed to enhance resilience for pelagic fisheries to future extreme events (Samhouri et al., 2023).…”

“…Although existing adaptive strategies (e.g. ‘adapt on‐the‐move’, ‘adapt in‐place’) used by fleets have shown promise for coping with and reacting to the impacts of MHWs (Fisher et al., 2020; Samhouri et al., 2023), forecasts for fleet distributions will allow for a proactive framework that can help keep pace with MHWs and aid in the development of climate‐resilient fisheries.…”