Steam-assisted gravity
drainage (SAGD) is an effective enhanced
oil recovery method for heavy oil reservoirs. The addition of certain
amounts of noncondensable gases (NCG) may reduce the steam consumption,
yet this requires new design-related decisions to be made. In this
study, we aimed to develop a machine-learning-based forecasting model
that can help in the design of SAGD applications with NCG. Experiments
with or without carbon dioxide (CO
2
) or
n
-butane (
n
-C
4
H
10
) mixed with
steam were performed in a scaled physical model to explore SAGD mechanisms.
The model was filled with crushed limestone that was premixed with
heavy oil of 12.4° API gravity. Throughout the experiments, temperature,
pressure, and production were continuously monitored. The experimental
results were used to train neural-network models that can predict
oil recovery (%) and cumulative steam–oil ratio (CSOR). The
input parameters included injected gas composition, prior saturation
with CO
2
or
n
-C
4
H
10
, separation between wells, and pore volume injected. Among different
neural-network architectures tested, a 3-hidden-layer structure with
40, 30, and 20 neurons was chosen as the forecasting model. The model
was able to predict oil recovery and CSOR with
R
2
values of 0.98 and 0.95, respectively. Variable importance
analysis indicated that pore volume injected, distance between wells,
and prior CO
2
saturation are the most critical parameters
that would affect the performance, in agreement with the experiments.