Steering clear of the confusion effect: aerial predators target fixed points in dense prey aggregations

Abstract

Collective behaviours are widely assumed to confuse predators, but empirical support for a confusion effect is often lacking, and its importance must depend on the predator's targeting mechanism. Here we show that raptors steer attacks on swarming bats by turning towards a fixed point in the swarm, rather than by using closed-loop pursuit of an individual. Any prey that the predator is on a collision course with will appear on a constant bearing, so target selection emerges naturally from the geometry of a collision. Our results show how predators can simplify the demands on their sensory system by decoupling steering from targeting when grabbing prey from a dense swarm. We anticipate that the same tactic will be used against flocks and schools across a wide range of taxa, in which case a confusion effect is paradoxically more likely to occur in attacks on sparse groups, for which steering and targeting cannot be decoupled.